• Iran’s ⁠Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warns that any “aggression” by ‌the US and Israel will ⁠be met with a “decisive ⁠and proportionate response” in separate phone calls with the army chief of Pakistan and the foreign ministers of Turkiye and Saudi Arabia.
• US embassies across the Middle East have warned their citizens to be prepared for “unforeseen escalation” a day after President Donald Trump threatened to hit Iran “very hard”.
• Trump says in a Truth Social post that Iran is experiencing “massive inflation” and that he is “destroying the Iranian currency”.

Iran’s defence minister outlines priorities, warns against complacency

Iran’s caretaker Defence Minister Majid Ebn al-Reza has outlined the country’s top priorities for preparing for future conflicts, in a speech to defence industry scientists, according to the IRNA news agency.

Ebn al-Reza identified four main priorities for Iran’s defence industry: space-based technologies, intelligence superiority, the “defence economy” – described as the production of effective, low-cost, agile, and mass-producible equipment through indigenization – and the resilience of industrial infrastructure.

He also warned against complacency, despite the US failing to achieve its military objectives.

“Many analysts may today speak of the enemy’s confusion, strategic deadlock, and narrowing options as a result of the success of our armed forces and its failure to achieve its objectives,” Ebn al-Reza said.

“However, such assessments must not lead us to complacency or inaction. The defence industry of the Islamic Republic of Iran must continue its path of progress, innovation and preparedness with even greater momentum than before.”

Despite decades of crippling sanctions, Iran has developed the ability to produce missiles and drones cheaply, allowing it to overwhelm air defenses at a relatively low cost while forcing its adversaries to spend millions of dollars intercepting the projectiles. Ebn al-Reza highlighted the importance of expanding indigenous production.

Top Iranian official warns of closure of ‘other straits and chokepoints’

Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, says Tehran will “tighten” its closure of the Strait of Hormuz if the US continues its threats and naval blockade of Iran.

“The continuation of the US regime’s maritime blockade and warmongering will further tighten the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and also close other straits and chokepoints,” Zolghadr said, according to the IRNA news agency. He warned that “the global economy, energy markets, and American voters will pay the price” of the closure.

Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz hours after the US and Israel launched the war on February 28. More than five months later, the waterway – through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas once passed – remains closed, disrupting supplies and driving up prices.

Last month, Iran’s ally in Yemen, the Houthis, announced a blockade of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea, disrupting shipments diverted there because of the closure of Hormuz. Riyadh exported 4.1 million barrels of oil a day via the Red Sea in June.

Israel on alert as Trump weighs attacks on Iran, media report says

The Israeli military has raised its defensive readiness as Trump considers whether to intensify attacks on Iran, the Israeli outlet Ynet has reported.

The move came after Israeli planners assessed that Iran could retaliate against Israel if the US targets Iranian infrastructure, even if Israeli forces do not participate in the attacks.

No new restrictions have been issued by Israel’s Home Front Command, while Ben Gurion airport continues to operate normally, the report said.

‘No tangible indication’ of US attacks on Iran despite Trump’s threat

President Trump posted several pictures of fighter aircraft on his Truth Social page, but had no comment on what they meant. We simply do not know [whether it was directed at Iran].

The president has been at his estate in Bedminster, New Jersey, and unusually, a “lid” was called in the early morning, before 10 o’clock, which means he will not be leaving that particular location.

Trump said on Friday at a cabinet meeting at Camp David, that “we will be striking them very hard”. He was speaking in the future tense, but there is no tangible indication that this is in fact going to be the case.

The normal indicators – such as the US Air Force base in the United Kingdom, where B-1 bombers are based – there have been no reports of any unusual activity there. There are some 20 B-1 bombers at that base in Gloucester, and that is the total number of B-1 aircraft that the US have available at any given moment.

There’s also been a travel warning from US embassies in the Middle East warning of a possibility of an imminent escalation in the conflict.

This is, however, rewording a reiteration of what the State Department has been putting out on virtually a daily basis in the recent months of this ongoing conflict. So, there is no real indication yet from Trump or others that any action is going to happen, but we did hear the president say at that cabinet meeting that he will be hitting Iran hard.

Iranian official says response to an enemy attack will not be limited to Gulf

Ebrahim Rezaei, an Iranian lawmaker and member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, is the latest official to warn of a strong response to any US attack.

“Our response to any potential enemy attack will not be limited to the Persian Gulf region,” he said in a post on X. “We will respond to all enemy bases and to the origin of the attacks from anywhere.”

Iran’s senior leadership has warned against any attacks on its energy infrastructure, saying it will target oil and gas facilities across the Gulf in response.

Rezaei had earlier said the US believes it can “deliver a quick and devastating blow” to Iran and force it to “surrender” within the two days that the market is closed. He said this was a delusion whispered in Trump’s ear by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who visited Washington, DC, last week.

“If a strike is made on Iran, we will return the entire region and its facilities to the Stone Age. It is in your best interest not to act foolishly,” Rezaei added.

Israeli media say US sending more refueling aircraft to Israel

The US military is expected to deploy about 10 additional aerial refueling aircraft to Israel in the coming days, according to the Israeli news outlet Ynet.

Citing security officials, the outlet said most of the aircraft will be parked at Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv.

The aircraft will join more than 30 US refueling planes already stationed at the airport, it added.

Trump cancels attack on Iran

The US president says he has decided to cancel a threatened attack on Iran, “subject to being able to rapidly make a deal”.

He said Israel “joins me in this commitment”.

Trump says the ‘perimeters of a deal has been agreed to’

The US president’s statement on cancelling the attacks on Iran.

He said on his Truth Social account that the US had been ready to unleash “Terror, Strength, and Power not seen since World War II” against Iran. But he said, “We have just been asked” by Iran and other countries to hold off any attack because “the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to”.

The deal would include the “total opening” of the Strait of Hormuz and an “end to Iran’s nuclear threat”.

Trump’s statement in full

“The U.S.A. is locked and loaded and ready to go against the Islamic Republic of Iran, at levels of Military Terror, Strength, and Power not seen since World War II. Despite this, we have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to. This would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat.

“Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL. The Country of Israel joins me in this commitment. Get to work, everybody, and get it DONE.

“Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP.”

Rubio insists US strikes made Iran more willing to negotiate

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says Iran is more willing to negotiate, including on its nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz, as a result of Washington’s military attacks.

In an interview with Fox News, Rubio repeated his claims the attacks had destroyed Iran’s navy, air force, missile defenses, launchers and weapons-production facilities, and had “severely degraded” its defensive capabilities.

“They still have missiles, and they still have drones, and they can still do damage,” Rubio said. He claimed, however, that Iran no longer had the “conventional shield that they were going to hide behind”.

“And that’s changed the whole dynamic. It’s the only reason why they are now willing and in some cases, seem eager, to do a deal on denuclearization, to do a deal on the straits. Because we are now approaching them from a position of strength, not from a position of weakness,” he said.

Iranian lawmaker accuses US of threatening attacks in public while pushing for talks behind the scenes

The Iranian reaction to the threatened US attacks.

Writing before Trump cancelled the planned attacks, Hassan Ghashghavi, a senior Iranian lawmaker and spokesman for the Parliament’s Commission on National Security and Foreign Policy, said regardless of how the war progresses, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will be managed by Tehran.

“In the media, they speak of escalation, while through existing channels they demand negotiations,” Ghashghavi said. “They cannot deceive the Islamic Republic of Iran. Whether by escalating or by negotiating, Iranian arrangement for passage through the SoH [Strait of Hormuz] is the only option on the table.”

Meanwhile, Majidreza Hariri, president of the Iran-China Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said Washington does not have the “courage” to target the country’s energy infrastructure.

“They don’t have the courage to carry it out because Iran’s resilience is far greater than that of the countries in the region against the destruction of infrastructure,” Hariri said in a post on X.

Iran’s electricity grid is reportedly one of the most decentralized in the world and contains up to 150 power plants across the country. The network’s extensive size makes it far more difficult to cause a nationwide blackout through an aerial assault.

Iranians likely to believe Trump ‘blinked’ because of ‘potential risk of escalation’

Ross Harrison, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, says it remains difficult to identify a clear US strategy in the war on Iran because Trump has repeatedly signaled imminent escalation before pulling back.

Harrison said it was too early to tell why Trump called off the planned attacks on Iran, including what commitments Iranians may have made to the US during Araghchi’s calls with his counterparts in Turkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.

“From the Iranian perspective, my sense is that they probably will believe that Donald Trump blinked, because of the potential risk of escalation,” he said.

He said the latest announcement would not represent genuine de-escalation unless the US and Iran reached a clear agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

“This conflict – in the way it has played out over the past couple of weeks – came about because of ambiguity in a memorandum of understanding signed back in June. What I think happened in the days following the memorandum is that Iran was interpreting the agreement, under Article 5, as giving it control over the flow of ships through the strait – that Iran would be responsible for opening it. The Americans then worked to undermine that by working with Oman to get ships to hug the southern coast, outside the range of Iran. That’s really what started this renewed escalation,” he said.

“So unless there’s some kind of clear agreement on opening the strait and removing the blockade, this isn’t going to hold. The announcement we saw is only going to be another pause.”

Trump’s move comes after Iran warned of decisive action

Iran has stepped up its diplomatic outreach amid the high tensions with the US.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held separate phone calls with Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, discussing the risks of further escalation.

During these calls, Tehran has warned against any US military action, reiterating that it’s willing to respond decisively to any attack against its sovereignty or national security.

These latest conversations come alongside a strongly worded statement by the Foreign Ministry accusing the US of violating the ceasefire agreement by ignoring the rules governing navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. And also by directing vessels through what Tehran considers an unauthorized route.

Tehran also accuses Washington of undermining the ceasefire by using commercial vessels to conceal military movements through the Strait of Hormuz and by imposing new sanctions and a naval blockade, and by also launching new air strikes against Iranian targets.

Former US ambassador to Oman Richard Schmierer said yesterday:

... “escalation would bring escalation” and that he expected Iran to similarly target energy facilities in neighboring Gulf countries. “That would be devastating, as that would really effectively change the international energy market, [as well as affect] the people in those countries.”

In other words: Trump would then destroy the whole global economy.

‘Situation remains on a knife-edge’ despite Trump calling off attacks

Ross Harrison at the Middle East Institute, said Iran will not negotiate under the threat of further attacks.

“Because in their history, anytime they’ve shown flexibility – including in the war last year, the 12-day war – it’s construed by Washington as weakness, and it gets exploited, and it leads to more violence,” he said.

He called the tensions an “endurance test” and “a struggle of wills”.

But he cautioned that decision-makers in Tehran and Washington could lose control of the conflict if it continues to drag on.

“We have other files that are now conflated with the Iran file – the Lebanon file, the Israel-Palestine file, the Saudi-Houthi file, the Iraq file. At some point in time, the decision-makers lose control of the dynamic [because] even if they want to de-escalate, other actors may escalate, and it may make it very, very difficult for the United States and Iran to extricate themselves,” he said.

So, if Trump’s claim that a deal was within reach is accurate, “that’s welcome news”, he said.

“But at the end of the day, the situation still remains on a knife-edge, and I think we’re going to see in the coming days whether we see a real de-escalation or just further posturing,” he added.

The "Lebanon file" belongs to the "Iran file" as the invasion of Lebanon is a spillover by Netanyahu.

On June 16, 2025, in an interview with ABC News, he called on the US for help in the assassination of the Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei, knowing that Hezbollah would respond.

Between June and December 2025, the CIA and the Mossad were preparing the assassination (source: NYT) of Khamenei knowing that Hezbollah would respond. On December 30, 2025, Netanyahu vowed to attack Iran in 2026 again signaling that the preparation for the assassination was completed.

On February 28, 2026, Khamenei was assassinated prompting Hezbollah to respond on March 1st by vowing revenge, which took place the following day.

The "Saudi-Houthi file" is connected to the "Iran file" as it started with the bombardment of Sana'a International Airport by the Saudi-backed government to prevent a Houthi delegation from returning after the delegation attended Khamenei's funeral. That government created the connection.

The "Iraq file" is also connected to the war as Iran is targeting the Iranian Kurds in Iraq.

It is the "Palestinian file" that has nothing to do with the "Iran file."

How Trump went from threatening Iran to canceling planned attacks

• US resumes attacks on Iran on July 8 after Tehran strikes ships that it said had used an unauthorized route in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump later declares the ceasefire over.
• Iran launches retaliatory attacks on what it says are US assets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Jordan and Qatar, as well as on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Four US soldiers are killed in Jordan and Iraq.
• Yemen’s Houthis announce a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea on July 20, opening a new front in the war.
• US pauses its bombing campaign on July 25 after 13 consecutive nights of strikes, with Trump claiming Washington and Tehran were having “good talks”.
• Trump meets Netanyahu at the White House on July 28. Then, at a cabinet meeting at Camp David on July 31, he says the US will continue hitting Iran “very hard” until Tehran can no longer withstand the pressure.
• US media meanwhile report that Washington and Israel are planning “what would be one of the harshest bombing campaigns to date against energy infrastructure targets in Iran”.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi holds separate phone calls with his counterparts in Saudi Arabia and Turkiye, as well as Pakistan’s army chief on August 1, warning of a “decisive ⁠and proportionate response” to any US-Israel aggression.
• Trump calls off the threatened attacks, saying Iran and other regional countries had asked Washington to hold off because the parameters of a deal had been agreed.

How many times has Trump pulled a ‘TACO’ on Iran?

The US president’s retreat from threats, whether in the war on Iran or on tariffs, has popularised the term TACO or “Trump Always Chickens Out”.

• On March 21, he threatened to “obliterate” Iranian power plants if Iran did not “fully open” the Strait of Hormuz. He later extended the deadline by five days and then an additional week.
• On April 1, Trump warned that the US would “bomb Iran into the Stone Age” after it refused to capitulate on Hormuz. No immediate escalation followed. Four days later, he posted an expletive-filled statement berating Iran for blocking the strait.
• On April 7, Trump said “a whole civilization will die tonight” in a threat that prompted a global outcry, with rights groups warning it showed intent to massacre civilians. On April 8, Pakistan secured a fragile ceasefire between the two sides.
• On May 4, Trump announced Operation Project Freedom to escort ships stuck in the Strait of Hormuz amid Iran’s blockade. Two days later, he wrote on Truth Social that the operation was “paused” to see whether an agreement would be reached.
• On June 11, hours after threatening to hit Iran “VERY HARD”, including seizing the crucial Kharg Island and assuming “total control” over the country’s oil facilities, Trump did an about-turn, citing US discussions with top Iranian leadership.

‘Locked and loaded and ready to go’ but Trump halted Iran attacks

Trump earlier said in his post that the US was “locked and loaded and ready to go against the Islamic Republic of Iran”, but Tehran and other Middle East countries asked him to hold off on new attacks.

“Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL,” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform.

US media say Saudi crown prince spoke with Trump and raised concern over planned strikes

Axios and The Associated Press news agency are reporting that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman raised concerns about his plans to escalate strikes on Iran during a phone call on Saturday.

Axios, citing a US official, said Prince Mohammed “expressed concern and asked for clarity about the plan of action”. It cited another source with knowledge of the matter as saying that he had urged Trump to de-escalate and refrain from launching the strikes.

A person briefed on the substance of the call told the AP that the Saudis were concerned that if the US targets Iran’s energy infrastructure or carries out massive strikes on bridges or power plants, Tehran could respond by carrying out attacks on the kingdom’s and other Gulf countries’ energy infrastructure.

As we’ve been saying, Trump said he had been persuaded not to attack Iran by countries in the Middle East.

Trump, MBS discuss regional de-escalation efforts in phone call

The Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reports that the crown prince and Trump have discussed developments in the region as well as their regional and international repercussions.

According to the SPA, the crown prince emphasized “the necessity of prioritizing dialogue to de-escalate tensions and the importance of exerting all possible efforts to achieve a truce, which paves the way for diplomatic solutions”.

Prince Mohammed stressed that diplomatic solutions should “yield positive results for preserving the security and stability of the region and prevent it from being drawn into a wider conflict”. The call also included a review of existing areas of cooperation between the two countries and ways to enhance them, the agency added.

Trump said late on Saturday that he had cancelled a planned large-scale military attack on Iran, claiming that the “perimeters of a deal” have been agreed upon. He announced the decision a day after US media reported that Washington and Israel were preparing to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure.

Saudi Arabia ‘may have pushed’ Trump to examine negotiation options

The recent “direct involvement” of Saudi Arabia in the diplomatic efforts related to the US-Israeli war on Iran, in addition to Qatar, Pakistan and Oman, is an important development, says Marlin Hardinger, a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire in the US.

Riyadh “probably” has been involved “on a personal level with the president”, he said.

“It seems like that may have pushed the president [Trump] back to at least examining the negotiation options and letting some of the senior leaders in the region step forward and take charge of this,” added Hardinger.

“First and foremost, they have to keep the dialogue going. That is exactly what diplomats get paid for,” the professor stressed, adding that “the right language” accepted by both sides should be found despite tensions.

Saudi Arabia tried to speak to ‘Trump’s ego’

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s phone call to Trump on Saturday represents a final push by the kingdom to ensure a sense of stability in the Middle East, according to Saudi analyst, Abdulaziz Alghashian.

“I think there’s a real doubt that the ceasefire is going to actually manifest,” the fellow at the Gulf International Forum said, adding that Saudi Arabia was likely trying to forestall another round of tit-for-tat escalations between Iran and the US.

The move was also trying to communicate to the region at large that Saudi Arabia seeks de-escalation, he said.

“While I think the Saudi ruling elite know that maybe there’s a real chance of escalation, they want to put the brakes on escalation,” he added, largely so that Saudi Arabia can have some control and better handle its security and the Gulf region’s too.

The kingdom is aware of Trump’s inconsistencies, but still tried to speak to his “ego” by sending Defence Minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman, to the White House, Alghashian said.

Iran sending two-sided message, ready to escalate or de-escalate

The two-sided message that we hear from Tehran is one of readiness for escalation and de-escalation simultaneously.

If you look at the phone calls that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi yesterday had with his counterparts across the region, including Turkiye and Saudi Arabia, as well as Pakistani officials who are mediating the talks, the message is exactly the same. He’s saying there’s readiness for further diplomatic engagement while the doors for diplomacy remain ajar.

Also, he’s saying the country has the right – and will use its rights – to defend itself, indicative of the potential for another round of escalation.

If you look at the statements coming from the IRGC, the joint military headquarters, or the army of the country, all are with the common message that, in the case of an escalation, there is readiness for a war of attrition, there’s readiness even for a war beyond the region.

But all in all, we have to keep in mind that the situation is marked by three important factors:

• Ambiguity, as we don’t know how the future could unfold.
• The fragility of the situation while we’re dealing with the ceasefire. We don’t know how it’s going to end up at the end of the day.
• And the complexity of the situation, as there are lots of points of contention, lots of controversies that need to be settled, either with diplomacy or another round of escalation.

US feeling ‘direct consequences’ of war on Iran at home

Paul Musgrave, an associate professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, believes it is “premature to hope too much for the end of” the US-Israel war on Iran after Trump called off the planned attacks on the country.

“Maybe we are moving towards the beginning of the end, but right now both sides are clearly posturing,” he said, adding that the posturing “is mostly made in hot-headed statements”.

Musgrave said the US administration is “beginning to see the direct consequences of the conflict”, such as increasing petroleum and LNG prices.

“There have been rumors that some cyber attacks in the US may have been backed by Iran, which bring the war home in a much more direct fashion,” he said.

“And President Trump and the Iranian government are aware that the electoral calendar is ticking,” he said, noting both the US and Israel will have elections in the October-November period.

Iran sees every threat from adversaries as ‘real and credible’: Minister

Majid Ibn al-Reza, Iran’s acting defence minister, says threats are taken seriously “even if made as part of psychological warfare”.

“We will neither be caught off guard nor remain passive,” he was quoted as saying by Iran’s Mehr news agency. Tehran would use threats as a basis to increase its military readiness, strengthen deterrence and enhance its military capabilities, he added.

Qatar reaffirms its support for efforts to de-escalate tensions in Gulf region

Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani has held separate calls with his counterparts in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Kuwait on tensions in the region.

In conversations with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Jordan’s Ayman Safadi and Kuwait’s Sheikh Jarrah Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, Sheikh Mohammed reaffirmed his country’s support for efforts to de-escalate tensions.

The leaders also discussed the need for “all parties to adhere to dialogue and diplomacy” and to commit to the memorandum of understanding signed on June 20, which will ensure free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and regional stability.

‘Threat of wider conflict’ still exists; Iran not easing position on Hormuz

Abdulla Banndar Al-Etaibi, an assistant professor in international affairs at Qatar University, says it is “still early” to understand what the process will bring after Trump’s latest announcement on Iran.

“It is still early to really see where we are heading as a region and the world in a fight in which both parties are still not lenient when it comes to their positions,” he said.

“On [the Strait of] Hormuz, for example, the Iranians are not easing their positions,” Al-Etaibi said, adding that “the threat of a wider conflict” still exists.

The analyst stressed, however, that the latest developments have created more time for diplomacy.

“We now have more time for the Iranians to cooperate with the regional countries in order to come up with some sort of arrangement on the Strait of Hormuz to get diplomacy back on track,” he concluded.

OPEC+ agrees to small oil output hike for September

OPEC+ has agreed to a modest increase of 188,000 barrels per day in its oil output quotas for September.

It said in a statement that seven OPEC+ countries, which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023, met virtually to review global market conditions and outlook.

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman took part in the ministerial meeting, it added.

“In their collective commitment to support oil market stability, the seven participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 188 thousand barrels per day from the additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023,” the statement said.

“This adjustment will be implemented in September 2026,” it added.

The US-Israel war on Iran, which began on February 28, has sharply curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint through which about a fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies transited previously. The disruptions have prevented millions of barrels of Middle Eastern oil per day from reaching markets and have caused energy prices to rise.

Rubio proposes alternative to Hormuz Strait for global shipping

Speaking to Fox News in an interview that aired on Saturday, Rubio projected the idea of a permanent geopolitical shift outside of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one fifth of global seaborne oil trade passed before the start of the US-Israel war on Iran.

He argued that regional states now understand that Iran, which insists it will not give up control the strategic waterway, is an active threat, necessitating a massive realignment of how energy commodities flow to markets across the world.

Economic researcher Ahmed Abu Qamar told Al Jazeera that Rubio’s statements represent a long-term strategic vision rather than an immediately executable economic plan. Energy markets are governed by the hard realities of supply and demand, he added, and it would take decades and billions of dollars in investments to even partially reduce reliance on the strait as one of the world’s main thoroughfares for commodities.

Hormuz Strait remains contentious issue as Trump holds off on attacking Iran

Donald Trump has once again held off on launching an attack against Iran, but no resolution appears in sight on how to manage traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Fars news outlet affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said numerous ships were stuck in the northern corridor of the strategically vital waterway in Iranian waters on Sunday at noon – and they could only pass if Iran’s armed forces allowed.

Iranian authorities have said the same will remain true for a southern sea corridor passing through Oman’s territorial waters.

Announcing his decision not to go ahead with the threatened attack, Trump said it followed a request from Iran and other regional countries after the “perimeters of a deal” had been agreed upon.

Iran’s acting Defence Minister, Majid Ebn-e-Reza, said Trump’s pullback comment was made “within the context of psychological operations and a war of calculations”.

CENTCOM says Iran blockade continues

US Central Command (CENTCOM) says its forces continue to enforce the naval blockade that was reimposed on Iran last month.

Jordan, Bahrain discuss efforts to reduce regional tensions amid attacks

Jordan’s King Abdullah II and Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa have discussed efforts to reduce regional escalations.

Their phone conversation also discussed the “necessity of reaching a comprehensive de-escalation that restores security and stability to the region”, according to a post on X by the Jordanian Royal Hashemite Court.

Jordan and Bahrain have been repeatedly targeted by Iran in recent weeks during high tension between Tehran and Washington.

US, Iran both offering two-sided message of preparation and negotiation

Iran is habituated to dancing to the same old tune, as it is receiving this oscillating rhetoric from the US president about the possibility of another round of confrontation on the one hand, while claiming that talks going well and that a potential deal is within reach.

In that regard, the Iranian side is at the same time responding with the same two-sided message, saying that the road for diplomacy is open on the one hand, [while also maintaining] full preparation for another round of confrontation, even beyond the borders of the region.

Obviously, when it comes to the public mood, the same dilemma before which the country stands is just putting a lot of impact on the ordinary lives of people, as it’s creating a sort of frustration and uncertainty living in the country.

Trump’s ‘TACO’ policy repeated for months

An Iranian university professor says this is certainly not the first time that Trump has retreated from launching attacks on Iran. He has adopted a ‘TACO’ (Trump Always Chickens Out) policy at least eight times over the past five months, said Mostafa Khoshcheshm, from Tehran’s University of Applied Sciences and Technology.

Trump has been following a “redundant pattern”, Khoshcheshm said.

He begins by threatening to bomb Iranian infrastructure, then he calls off the attack, saying that “mediators are saying that Iran is showing inclination or begging for negotiations” and finishes by saying that Iran has agreed to all the US’s demands, said the professor.

“This shows that Trump doesn’t have a consistent plan for a war like this and believes that he can win it using soft warfare” and social media posts, said Khoshcheshm.

“But..the reality on the ground is very much different.”

Iran has “called Trump’s bluff and showed that its very much ready to go for an escalation” as it has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. Khoshcheshm added that its proxies have also demonstrated that by shutting down the Bab-al-Mandeb strait and bombing Saudi infrastructure “in return for Saudi aggression against Yemen”.

“I believe that we are going to have some tranquillity for probably a couple of weeks, but then this pattern starts again and goes on again,” said Khoshcheshm.

Gulf states engaging at all levels of diplomacy to avoid war

Dania Thafer, executive director at the Gulf International Forum, explains that Gulf states are talking to each other, the US and Iran to de-escalate tensions amid a costly war.

“Obviously, the war from a strategic perspective is going nowhere, and it’s costly. Now there are signs of horizontal escalation, bringing in the Houthis, more escalation from the Iraqis towards the Saudis and vice versa, and attacks on Egyptian ports,” Thafer said.

“I think from the Gulf states’ perspective, this is a complete loss for their economy, so the incentive for them is to try to find a solution,” she said.

Thafer added that the Saudis spoke to the Trump administration, reiterating that they want de-escalation.

“What happened is, whatever US actions are, it seems like the guns are pointed towards the Gulf states. Therefore, in the long term, from the perspective of the Gulf states, they are trying to engage on every level,” Thafer explained.

Strait of Hormuz will not return to ‘pre-war situation’, says Iranian spokesperson

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, says that the Strait of Hormuz will “never return to the pre-war situation”, Iran’s Fars news outlet reports.

According to the spokesperson, ongoing talks between Iran and Oman about the waterway have nothing to do with the opening or closing of the Strait of Hormuz, adding that the closure of the strait was due to “US sabotage and the naval blockade of Iran.”

He added that the talks were bilateral and said that the issue of the discussions to reach a “mechanism that will secure our interests is not new and has been going on for a long time.”

“The Islamic Republic of Iran acts based on the interests and concerns of the country and will not change its decision under the influence of threats and intimidation from others,” he said.

Baghaei added that Iran “will not back down from its positions due to threats and media pressure.”

Iran, Oman negotiations in ‘final stages’, says Araghchi

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says negotiations between Oman and Iran are in their “final stages”.

In a post on Telegram, Araghchi said in a report he presented to the cabinet, he described the negotiations between Tehran and Muscat as “on the way to being finalized”.

Oman and Iran have been discussing the future management of the Strait of Hormuz.

Mediators trying to revive MoU agreement, says Iranian parliament spokesperson

Hassan Ghashghavi, spokesman for Iran’s parliament national security commission, says mediators are trying to revive the June memorandum of understanding, Iranian news outlet SNN reports.

In an interview, Ghashghavi said mediators were aware that the main issues at present were the Strait of Hormuz and that an “exchange of views” was ongoing.

“It is possible that the Iranian side will go to Muscat again. This is the nature of diplomacy, and this exchange of views continues regularly. It is necessary to ensure national interests,” Ghashghavi said.

“From our point of view and the Muslim forces’ and our diplomacy’s perspective, lasting peace cannot be provided except through the area of power. That is, the other side’s surrender to the Iranian logic. That is, the power of our logic becomes effective. This power of logic is sometimes created through talk, sometimes through military power,” he added.

UK, Bulgaria, Ukraine tell Iran they will not join war, Iranian spokesperson says

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei says ongoing discussions with Oman involve a transit route through the Strait of Hormuz that is “neither a northern nor a southern route”, Iranian media report.

In an interview with SNN, Baghaei said that the US did not allow for shipping traffic to resume in the waterway within the timeframe set out in the memorandum of understanding (MoU) and “attacked us before the agreed-upon period expired.”

“Opening the Strait of Hormuz is a separate matter from our negotiations with Oman, as the strait’s closure is linked to America’s violation of its commitments,” he said.

He added that, in the past 24 hours, numerous calls were received from the UK, Bulgaria, and Ukraine to say that they would not be part of the war against Iran.

What do these countries mean?

Because, logistical and other supporting activities are preparatory for attacks whether on bases in the United Kingdom, including its San Diego Island in the Indian Ocean, or bases in Bulgaria.

Both countries would then contribute to a waging of war across borders by the United States, which is illegal as it violates Article 2, Paragraph 4 of the UN Charter. The paragraph reads  that countries are restricted from threatening or using force against another country's borders or independence.

If Britain, Bulgaria and Ukraine were to let their soil being used for attacks across borders, they are considered co-belligerent or an accomplice to an act of aggression. They will loose protection in the right of self-defense, the right of sovereignty, as they expose themselves as military objective by the country that is under attack from co-belligerent countries.

Oman trying to find a way to de-escalate tensions and keep the Strait of Hormuz open

Abdullah Baabood, a professor of Islamic Area Studies at Waseda University in Japan, says there are “good signs” that ongoing talks between Iran and Oman will lead to something “constructive” for the Strait of Hormuz.

“Obviously, given the escalation, given the threat from President Trump, I think the Omanis are trying to find a way to de-escalate and find a way to open a route, at least to keep shipping open,” Baabood said.

He added that, as Iran has authority overseeing the passage of vessels through the strait, Oman would not pursue a similar arrangement because of the impact on shipping.

“There are other ways … like in the Strait of Malacca, and I think [Oman] would consider doing something like that where there could be an authority for not just Iran and Oman but also all the little states in the Gulf, including all the GCC states and also Iraq,” he said.

Qatar, Egypt discuss efforts to de-escalate tensions in region

Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani and Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty have discussed efforts to de-escalate tensions during a phone call.

During the conversation, Sheikh Mohammed stressed the importance of the United States and Iran remaining committed to dialogue and implementing “what was agreed upon within the framework of the memorandum of understanding” between the two countries, “including ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz”, according to a statement from Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Iran’s Pezeshkian says MoU will be ‘centre of gravity’ of future foreign relations

Iran’s president says the memorandum of understanding signed in June with the US “will be the centre of gravity” of Iran’s “foreign relations in the future”.

“We must strive to compel the enemy to remain committed to what it has signed,” Masoud Pezeshkian posted on social media. “The security of the country, the region and our allies will be enhanced by this memorandum.”

Crew of Iranian ship hit in Ukrainian attack returning home

The crew of an Iranian commercial ship that was hit in a Ukrainian attack last week and the body of a sailor killed in the incident have returned to Iran, reported Iran’s semi-official ISNA news agency.

Trump says that US continues to engage in indirect dialogue with Iran

US President Donald Trump has been saying publicly that there is constant contact between his negotiators and those in Iran, not necessarily direct but probably through mediators.

But throughout the upsurge in the conflict that we have seen in recent weeks, Trump has consistently maintained that there is an ongoing dialogue between the parties.

Trump is now saying that he’s going to give more time for a deal, although implying that he won’t give it a particularly super long time.

Many observers are saying that the threat of conflict, which was so heavy in the past 24 hours, was, in a way, a game of brinkmanship designed to persuade the Iranians that an attack was going to take place, in an attempt to get them to cave into his demands.

Well, if that was the ploy, then it is apparent that it failed, and Trump has now backed away from those threats, saying that he’s allowing limited time for a deal.

It’s worth noting that this isn’t the first thing on Trump’s mind today, as he has just posted a photo of himself on his social media page after winning the senior division of the Bedminster Club Golf Tournament.

Saudi, Iranian FMs discuss efforts to reduce tensions during call

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud received a call from his Iranian counterpart, during which the two discussed efforts to de-escalate tensions.

According to a statement posted on X by the Saudi Foreign Ministry, the ministers discussed the current situation, with Al Saud emphasising Riyadh’s “eagerness to continue the regional rounds in establishing security and stability, in order to achieve the common interests of all the countries and peoples of the region”.

Former US envoy: Trump has ‘no real plan’ on Iran

While it’s impossible to say whether Trump cancelled his planned strikes this weekend to allow diplomatic talks to continue, it’s clear that he doesn’t have a real plan as the war continues, says Adam Ereli, former US ambassador to Bahrain.

The Trump administration is “hoping for the quickest and least costly way out of this dead end that they’ve driven themselves into”, Ereli said.

A pattern has emerged in the way Trump has conducted himself throughout the war, the former ambassador said.

First, Trump convinces himself that if the US launches increasingly heavy strikes on Iran, it will force the Islamic Republic to make a deal.

Then, the leaders of several Gulf countries call him, urging him not to launch the strikes because they would suffer the consequences of Iranian retaliation, Ereli said. Trump then backs down and says the US will “give diplomacy another chance”, while maintaining that it stands ready to launch strikes if Iran refuses the deal.

As such, the situation remains the same, “with Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump declaring that we have a deal, then that deal falls apart and then the whole thing starts all over again,” Ereli concluded.

Iran, Saudi and Pakistani officials discuss diplomatic efforts during phone call

Iranian FM Araghchi held a second phone call with his Saudi counterpart Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, with the addition of Pakistani Army Commander Asim Munir, to discuss recent diplomatic efforts.

According to a post on Telegram by Araghchi, the officials exchanged views on the current situation and “initiatives aimed at maintaining and strengthening security and stability in the West Asian region.”

“The parties also emphasized the need to utilise the capacities of regional cooperation and political solutions in this direction,” the statement added.

Trump says negotiations with Iran to begin Monday

US President Trump says negotiations with Iran, likely via intermediaries, are set to begin on August 3.

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump said: “We are talking to them in the form of a negotiation; it begins tomorrow afternoon, and we’ll see how it goes. I’d love to do that. It’ll save a lot of lives. A lot of unnecessary power, to be honest with you. We are ready to go whenever we want. Would I rather make a deal? I’m not looking to kill people, because a lot of people die; we don’t want that. So they asked us, Iran specifically, but the other three, they asked us”.

Trump avoids commenting on reports of US forces moving out of Kuwait, Bahrain

US President Trump has refused to comment on the potential relocation of US troops from bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.

Asked by a reporter on Air Force One, if his administration is in the process of relocating US forces, he answered, “I don’t want to comment on that”.

Trump insists dialogue with Iran is ongoing but time for deal running short

President Trump has been insistent, saying publicly that there has been constant contact between his negotiators and those in Iran – not necessarily direct; it is probably through mediators.

But throughout this upsurge in conflict that we have seen in recent weeks, President Trump has maintained continuously that there is an ongoing dialogue between the parties.

So, President Trump is now saying, “OK, I’m going to give more time for a deal”, although implying that there isn’t going to be very much time.

Many observers are saying that the whole threat of conflict that was so heavy in the past 24 hours was in a way a brinkmanship game, trying to persuade the Iranians that an attack was going to take place and trying to get them to cave into his demands before it did.

Well, if that was the ploy, then it is apparent that it failed, and President Trump has backed off those threats now, saying that he’s giving – he implies – limited time for a deal.

Iran close to reaching Hormuz deal with Oman: Official

A spokesperson for Iran’s parliamentary National Security Committee says Tehran is close to reaching an agreement with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz.

Hassan Qashqavi also confirmed that Tehran’s mediators were seeking to revive the memorandum of understanding with Washington.

Tanker in Strait of Hormuz reports hearing explosion: UKMTO

The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) centre has reported an incident in the Strait of Hormuz, 20 nautical miles (37km) northeast of Khasab, Oman.

“The master of a tanker reports hearing an explosion in close proximity of the vessel,” the UKMTO said in a statement.