• The US president has rejected reports of dwindling military stockpiles in the ongoing war on Iran, telling The Wall Street Journal that the nation’s supply of munitions far exceeds its current needs.
• Hopes for diplomacy have emerged as both the US and Iran suspended military attacks for a second day, breaking a two-week cycle of escalating strikes.
• Global oil prices dropped by more than 5 percent after the US suspended its two-week bombing campaign against Iran, signalling a potential shift towards diplomacy.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has warned that a strike on an Iranian merchant ship in the Caspian Sea “cannot go unanswered,” accusing Ukraine of the attack that killed a crew member.

‘A chance for diplomacy’: US and Iran suspend strikes for second day

The US ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, confirmed on Sunday what had been widely reported: that after 13 straight nights of US strikes on Iranian military targets, the Trump administration has decided to take a pause of indeterminate time in order to allow diplomacy to take effect.

This is because, even though the US says that Iran broke the terms of the memorandum of understanding by striking at least two or three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz just three weeks ago, there has been concern from interlocutors, like Pakistan and Qatar and other countries in the Middle East, that there could be the risk of a wider regional war if diplomacy is not reinstated.

These countries have been working to get the US and Iran to back away, speak about their problems, and restore the ceasefire that was the centerpiece of the memorandum of understanding signed in the middle of June.

These interlocutors have been working towards this, and this has now been confirmed by the US president, Donald Trump, as well as by Iranian officials, but it’s not clear yet if these conversations will lead to a resumption of the memorandum of understanding.

‘All for Israel’: US lawmaker says Iran war has weakened country

US Congressman Thomas Massie has accused the Trump administration of severely damaging the nation’s stability and resources in its war on Iran.

“The US has been significantly weakened by the war with Iran,” he wrote on X.

“This administration depleted our missile defenses, drained our oil reserves, sacrificed our men & women, inflated the price of consumer goods, increased our debt, and neglected our domestic needs… all for Israel,” he added.

Iran insists on ‘service fee’ in Omani-led talks on Strait of Hormuz

There has been progress in the diplomatic engagement between Iran and the United States. The Omani delegation was in Tehran, where they exchanged ideas on how to create a mechanism for the future management of the Strait of Hormuz.

But we haven’t seen a radical change in Iran’s position regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Still, Iran opposes alternative corridors through the strait.

According to some reports, the Omanis have suggested a regional consortium to manage this mechanism without collecting tolls.

However, reports indicate that the Iranians are still insisting on a “service fee” and want the mechanism to be managed by Iran.

Pentagon removes fallen US troops from official Iran war count, AP reports

The Associated Press reports that four American service members killed during the recent escalation in fighting between the US and Iran have been removed from Washington’s official war casualty tally and reclassified under a separate category.

The Defense Casualty Analysis System, previously cited by military officials as the primary record for casualties in the conflict, omitted the four deceased troops alongside scores of injured personnel from its main count last week.

Instead, the AP report said, records now appear under a newly designated header labelled “Overseas Operations”, which lists the names of the four dead soldiers along with 207 wounded personnel. It remains uncertain whether every listed injury stemmed directly from the war on Iran.

Pentagon Press Secretary Joel Valdez said on Thursday that the reduction in published casualty numbers stemmed from “anomalies” and “temporary data disruptions” that were being addressed “imminently”.

The shift in categories coincided with growing scrutiny over transparency, as military officials provided far fewer details on strategy and casualties following the resumption of clashes. The Defense Department had not hosted an official news conference on the war since early May, and US Central Command ceased issuing routine casualty reports to journalists, according to the AP report.

Oil prices drop by 4% after US pauses strikes on Iran

Oil prices dropped 4 percent on Monday after the US and Iran paused strikes over the weekend following two weeks of attacks, raising hopes of a diplomatic solution that eases the conflict and allows shipping to resume in the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures dropped $3.96, or 4.1 percent, to $92.82 as of 03:29 GMT after briefly slipping under the key support level of $90 earlier in the session.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded at $85.29 a barrel, down $4.02, or 4.5 percent.

Six ships intercepted in Strait of Hormuz, Iran state media reports

Six ships attempted to pass through an “illegal and unsafe” route in the south of the Strait of Hormuz after turning off their navigation and positioning systems, Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB reports.

One vessel suffered an accident, and the others returned to the Gulf under “decisive Iranian management”, IRIB said.

Citing an informed official, the broadcaster reported that the incident occurred in the early hours of Monday morning after the vessels were provoked by the US military.

Top diplomats of Oman and UAE discuss regional developments

UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan has held a phone call with his Omani counterpart, Sayyid Badr bin Hamad Albusaidi, according to the former’s office.

They discussed “developments in the Middle East, regional updates, and ongoing efforts to achieve lasting security and stability in the region”, a statement from the UAE foreign ministry said.

“The two sides also reviewed the fraternal relations between the two brotherly countries and explored ways to enhance cooperation in a manner that serves the interests and prosperity of their peoples,” it added.

Saudi, Omani FMs discuss Strait of Hormuz security in call

The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and Oman discussed ongoing security tensions in the Gulf region due to the war on Iran.

The Saudi state agency SPA reported that the top diplomats shared their concerns about recent developments and spoke about ways “to ensure the safety and freedom of maritime navigation in the Strait of Hormuz”.

Omani representatives also held in-person discussions in Iran over the weekend. Tehran said maritime navigation was discussed and that progress had been made during the meetings.

US enters talks every time energy prices surge: Iran spokesman

The Iranian foreign ministry’s spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, says the United States is “stuck and struggling” after its unprovoked attack on the country.

“The Americans are struggling in their current situation, they have caused this. They have done this and now they are stuck,” Baghaei told reporters. “Our decision [on the war] depends and relies on our national interests.”

He added: “We have never allowed America to determine for us the time of war or peace.”

Esmaeil Baghaei, says Washington thought “Iran would collapse in three days and surrender” after the start of the US-Israeli war.

“Now, months later, America is stuck in this place and they are proud of its crimes,” he told reporters in Tehran.

Baghaei said the United States returns to the negotiation table whenever global energy prices increase.

Ukrainian attitude towards Iran is illegal: Baghaei

The Ukrainian attitude “is illegal and is a violation of all the international laws”, the foreign ministry spokesman says.

“It is a dangerous maneuver and we will have the right to reply,” Baghaei added.

He said that from the very beginning of the Russia-Ukraine dispute, Tehran had “no intention to intervene” in it.

Caspian Sea attack: Iran and Ukraine intensify opposing rhetoric

Iran and Ukraine are both invested in pushing forward their rhetoric after a deadly Ukrainian attacked on an Iranian commercial ship in the Caspian Sea, an analyst says.

Zeidon Alkinani, founding director of the Arab Perspectives Institute, said the two countries have very different views on the ship attack, adding there are “a lot of political stakes” in play.

Another scenario could be that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is offering the support that US President Donald Trump failed to receive from European nations when it comes to the war on Iran, hoping it could lead to Washington putting more pressure directly on Moscow, Alkinani explained.

If the situation in the Caspian Sea further escalates Ukraine will not just be in direct confrontation with Russia, he said.

“It means this is no longer a regional war, it’s a trans-regional conflict that has pulled out regional rivalries within the Middle East but also global rivalries. It kind of indicates and reflects a reminiscence to some of the conflicts that erupted around the Cold War, unfortunately.”

Iran weighs response to Ukrainian Caspian Sea ship attack

The understanding in Tehran is the United States failed in its objectives during the war on Iran and Iranian officials believe they defeated the United States in the conflict.

They believe Washington has few remaining options. According to Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, this is because of what he described as the Iranian armed forces’ “decisive response” to the US-Israeli attack.

That is why he’s insisting that, in any future engagement, Iran’s priority will remain its national rights and security, and it will not back down from its positions.

Baghaei also reiterated Iran’s position regarding the Ukrainian bombing of a commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea. For the second time, he said the attack would not go unanswered.

The question now is how Iran will respond. Will retaliation come in the form of even closer cooperation with Russia, or could it involve a direct military response?

If it is the latter, it would add an entirely new layer to the conflict. This is a particularly sensitive issue for Iran, as Iranian officials do not want the Caspian Sea to become another battleground.

Turkmenistan calls attack on Iranian vessel in Caspian Sea ‘unacceptable’

Ashgabat has condemned the deadly Ukrainian strike on an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea on Saturday

The Foreign Ministry described it as “unacceptable”.

“Turkmenistan, as a Caspian littoral state and a country with permanent neutrality recognized by the United Nations, emphasises that the Caspian Sea is a sea of peace, harmony and good-neighborliness,” it said in a statement.

The attack on caused the vessel “to explode, killing one sailor and injuring several others”, according to Iran’s Foreign Ministry.

Ukraine says Iran shouldn’t play the victim after Caspian strike

Ukraine’s foreign minister has denounced Iran after a vessel was attacked in the Caspian Sea.

Andrii Sybiha accused Tehran of involvement in Russia’s war on Ukraine by supplying Moscow with weapons.

“The regime in Tehran is a direct accomplice to Russian aggression against Ukraine, fuelling Moscow’s criminal war with weapons that have killed Ukrainians since 2022,” Sybiha posted on X.

“Iran has no standing to pretend to be a victim, let alone justify its threats with absurd references to the UN Charter.”

Sybiha also accused Iran of trying to divert attention from Russia’s attacks on civilian shipping in the Black Sea, which he said threaten global food security. “But it will not succeed,” he said.

“Russia’s attacks on freedom of navigation will be in the spotlight of today’s emergency UN Security Council meeting and we expect strong responses by the international community,” he added.

Iran claimed on Saturday that Ukraine attacked one of its commercial vessels in the Caspian Sea, condemning the strike as an act of aggression.

Russia deepening cooperation with Iran, says Ukraine’s Zelenskyy

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Moscow is deepening military coordination with Tehran as well as North Korea and China.

In an interview with Sky News, Zelenskyy said North Korea could send 30,000 troops to Russia while Iran may provide additional missiles.

Asked whether he’s concerned about a potential Iranian attack on Ukraine, Zelenskyy said Tehran is already involved in the war by supplying weapons to Russia.

“We can’t trust these people because at the very beginning, without any escalation from our side, Iranians gave weapons,” he said.

“We have to do everything not to open a new front … [but] Iranians and North Koreans already attacked us.”

Israel against the transfer of nuclear technology to the region: Iran

The Israeli government “will do whatever it takes to prevent the transfer of [nuclear] technologies” to the countries in the Middle East, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman says.

Replying to a question on the Saudi-US nuclear deal at a news conference, Esmaeil Baghaei said: “Peaceful use of nuclear energy is everyone’s right.”

“The reason for the pressure on Iran was Iran’s use of its right. We leave the judgement to the world.”

Iran alleges some Middle East nations participated in the war

Tehran primarily “holds the US responsible for military aggression” against the country, its spokesman said.

“Of course we cannot ignore the participation of regional countries,” Esmaeil Baghaei said. “We expect these countries not to continue cooperating with the US in actions against Iran.”

He didn’t specifically identify any nation.

He refers at least to Jordan and Kuwait.

Oman-Iran talks on Hormuz continue; strait remains closed: Baghaei

Negotiations between Iran and Oman on the key waterway were held on Friday and Saturday, according to the foreign ministry spokesman.

“There were useful discussions on how to manage shipping in the Strait of Hormuz,” said Esmaeil Baghaei.

“The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has not changed; it remains closed and these negotiations have nothing to do with the US.”

Iranian army vows harsher response to future attacks

Iran’s army says it will respond “more severely” to any future attacks by its adversaries

Marking the anniversary of Operation Mersad, a major battle during the closing stages of the Iran-Iraq War, the army said it was “more vigilant than ever” and ready to confront “any threat and conspiracy of the enemies”.

The military will continue to defend Iran’s “independence and territorial integrity” and would “respond more severely to the aggressions of the enemies”, said a statement carried by Tasnim news agency.

Iran says it hasn’t asked for a resumption of talks with US

The Iranian foreign ministry’s spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, says Tehran has not requested a restart of negotiations ⁠with the United States to ‌end the war.

“This is not war management. Repeated war crimes and boasting about them are merely attempts to escape a disaster they created under the influence of the Zionist regime, and they will inevitably pay the price,” Baghaei told reporters in Tehran.

Tensions between the US and Iran have intensified in recent weeks with Washington carrying out attacks and Tehran responding by targeting what it said were US military facilities and equipment in countries across the Middle East.

Questions raised after Iran ‘begging for a deal’ comments

Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq reported drone attacks on Monday, two days after the US abruptly suspended its two-week bombing campaign against Iran.

Jordan and northern Iraq were where four US service members were killed during the air campaign, which Trump called off over the weekend after his top military commanders advised him that the strategy had run its course.

A US official told Reuters news agency that commanders told the president they were running out of targets. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, expressed concern over the depletion of air defence munitions, the unnamed official said.

Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other US officials have ⁠⁠described Iran as “begging for a deal”. But an Iranian foreign ministry spokesman said on Monday that Tehran has not asked to resume ⁠⁠peace talks.

Jordan’s army says it shot down 2 drones; no casualties reported

Jordan’s ⁠armed forces say two drones were intercepted on ‌Monday morning.

There were no ⁠casualties or material ⁠damage, a statement said, without ⁠identifying ⁠who launched the ‌drones.

Iran’s IRGC has said it delivered “heavy blows” to US bases in Jordan over the past two weeks with ballistic missile and drone strikes.

The Iranian attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain drew swift condemnation from across the Middle East.

Iran signals no shift on Strait of Hormuz position

Iranian spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei says political and technical talks with Oman are continuing. An Omani delegation was in Tehran on Friday and Saturday and he described the discussions as having made progress.

The talks are focused specifically on how shipping through the Strait of Hormuz should be managed. Iranian officials continue to say that messages are being exchanged through mediators, but there are no direct negotiations with the United States.

What we’re seeing is Iran maintaining its position on control of Hormuz, while continuing to reject direct talks with Washington.

The Omanis are understood to have proposed a regional consortium to manage the strait and provide security for maritime navigation, with vessels able to pass without paying tolls.

Iran, however, opposes that proposal and instead it continues to favor a mechanism under Iranian control that would require ships to pay a “service fee”.

Despite the positive language about progress, there is little indication that Tehran is softening its position on the Strait of Hormuz.

Netanyahu says Iran will be ‘at the forefront’ of Trump talks

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Iran will be at the top of the agenda when he meets US President Donald Trump in Washington, DC, later today.

“In our meeting, we will discuss all the issues on the table with Iran at the forefront,” Netanyahu said on X.

“Our goal is clear: to safeguard Israel’s security, strengthen its power and expand the circle of peace around us.”

Netanyahu described the visit as his eighth meeting with Trump since the US president began his second term, “more than with any other international leader”.

“I am also traveling with another purpose: to pay my final respects to our friend – a true friend of mine and of the state of Israel – Lindsey Graham, one of Israel’s greatest friends of all time,” he added.

Oil prices continue to sink after US and Iran pause strikes

Oil prices continue to tumble after the United States and Iran paused tit-for-tat attacks.

International benchmark Brent fell 8 percent to $86 a barrel at 12:00 GMT.

The US and Iran resumed hostilities this month breaking a fragile ceasefire after attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.

Crude prices soared during the flare-up with Brent breaking back above $100 a barrel last week for the first time since May.

Netanyahu faces pressure to showcase influence over Trump

Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu will be under pressure to prove he still has the ability to influence President Trump during his White House visit, an analyst says.

Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in international studies at King’s College London, said Israelis feel they’ve been cut out of the decision-making process when it comes to the war on Iran.

“They don’t have the agency they would want in terms of deciding when the war stops and starts, what it targets,” he said.

The US-Israel relationship has been questioned by some Americans and the same dynamic is unfolding in Israel, said Geist Pinfold.

“Israel’s leaders felt like they were basically constrained in Lebanon, for example, with the US pushing for Israel to withdraw. Israel has not yet withdrawn, but it still feels like its operational freedom of action is significantly curtailed there.”

Having the US at its side during the war on Iran provided Israel with diplomatic cover and the military advancement to hit more targets, but the partnership also had a flip side.

“It was actually something that was hamstringing and curtailed Israel’s own freedom of action,” he added.

The US holding back on Iran attacks

The United States has halted strikes on Iran after two weeks of heavy bombardment, and Tehran stopped its retaliatory attacks on US military assets and infrastructure in Middle Eastern countries.

Although US President Donald Trump has denied it, media reports say Washington may be running low on air defense interceptors, while pressure is mounting on both sides to give diplomacy another chance.

Despite the sudden lull in the exchange of strikes, the Strait of Hormuz, the critical waterway that has emerged as one of the biggest flashpoints in the war, remains closed.

‘It’s a rollercoaster’: Nations fast running out of oil reserves

The global oil market is “running on borrowed time” as countries exhaust reserves used to cushion the impact of major supply disruptions, an analyst says.

“It’s really quite dire,” said Kona Haque, a commodities and macro-economist, describing the market since the US-Israel war on Iran began in February as experiencing “the biggest supply shock ever”.

“Oil prices reached over $100 a barrel, went down to $70 and back up to $100. It’s a rollercoaster. It’s the kind of uncertainty that shippers, oil producers and oil consumers all hate.”

Haque said China has helped ease pressure on the global market by reducing exports of refined petroleum products, allowing it to import less crude oil. “That’s been a huge source of relief for the oil markets over the last five months, but how long can they do that?”

Other countries are drawing down strategic inventories built up over many years. “Stocks are becoming quite tight… We’re running on borrowed time.”

Mediators highlight ‘progress’ between US and Iran

Mediators have achieved progress in getting the United States and Iran back to negotiations, regional officials say, after both sides paused attacks following a period of rapidly escalating tensions.

The two Middle East officials – who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss closed-door talks – told The Associated Press that mediators led by Qatar and Pakistan are working to bridge the gap between Washington and Tehran.

The main goal is a return to an interim ceasefire deal that collapsed after heavy exchanges of fire over the past two weeks.

President Trump is “giving talks some space. He’s giving it a little bit of room”, Mike Waltz, US ambassador to the United Nations, told Fox News on Sunday.

Trump says he’s ready for ‘strong military action’ if Iran talks fail

President Trump tells Axios that the US is in “very deep talks” with Iran.

“If they don’t work out, we will be go back to very strong military action,” he said.

Trump said he paused attacks on Friday because the countries acting as mediators to bring an end to the US-Iran conflict asked him to. “All of the people that deal with Iran asked me: ‘Don’t fire,'” he said.

Asked how long he was willing to give diplomacy, he said, “Not much time. Either it goes fast or not at all.”

Hormuz remains top contentious issue for Iran, US, Oman

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be the main sticking point in the indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran.

Mediators Qatar and Pakistan, which continue to exchange messages between the two sides, are eager to get both back to the table and back to the historic memorandum of understanding.

The strait also remains contentious between Iran and Oman, though several sources say some progress has been made on this issue over the weekend. But they still remain poles apart on what the final version of things is going to look like.

Basically, the Omanis are expecting that the toll for transiting Hormuz will be voluntary, while the Iranians say the situation in the strategic waterway can’t return to what it was before the war and are insisting there will be a toll.

The Iranians say, however, they’re open to ideas about whether it’s going to be entry fees, exit fees, or if it is going to be in lieu of some services that both Iran and the Omanis provide.

Oman discusses need to reach ‘an understanding’ on Strait of Hormuz with regional counterparts

Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi has affirmed with his regional counterparts the importance of reaching an understanding that ensures the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the Oman News Agency reports.

Al-Busaidi also discussed the latest regional developments and efforts to reduce tensions.

US military says it has redirected 17 ships in Hormuz Strait

US Central Command (CENTCOM) says it has redirected 17 commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, as well as disabled two and boarded two others to ensure compliance with the US blockade on Iran.

In peace time, about 20 percent of the world’s oil passes through the strategic waterway that links the Gulf to the Indian Ocean.

Israel expected to push US to continue exerting pressure on Iran

The conflict with Iran will be at the top of the agenda of talks between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump.

This will include discussions about the continued joint coordination between the US and Israel and Israel’s desire for there not to be talks but instead increased pressure on Iran.

Netanyahu is not happy that the US has paused its strikes, and so the discussions is to expect to focus on a push by Israel for the US to continue exerting maximum pressure on Iran.

There is also the expectation that there will be discussions about how to prevent Iran from rebuilding its nuclear weapons program and what the future of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz might look like.

Qatar’s PM, Canadian foreign minister discuss regional de-escalation efforts

Qatar’s Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, has discussed efforts to reduce regional tensions with Canada’s Foreign Minister, Anita Anand.

In their phone call, Qatar’s foreign ministry said Sheikh Mohammed stressed the need for all parties to adhere to dialogue and diplomacy, as well as implementing the MoU, including ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

He also reaffirmed Qatar’s support for efforts to defuse tensions and achieve a comprehensive, sustainable peace in the region.

Trump says US is ‘talking with Iran right now’

US President Donald Trump says Iran requested a meeting “through their surrogates and directly, and we’re meeting,” he told reporters.

“We’re talking with Iran right now,” he said, adding, “We are having good talks.”

He said that “good things can happen.”

“They would not have requested the meeting if we were doing poorly. The only reason they want to meet is because we’ve been hitting them very hard,” Trump said.

None of the two parties have sent a delegation neither to Islamabad or anywhere else to meet each other in-person or each remaining in separated rooms.

The is only a communication of sending messages back and forth via the main mediator Pakistan.

Trump says the US has ‘a lot of ammunition’

On US missile interceptor stocks, Trump says US has “a lot of ammunition, different types.”

He blames the Biden administration for sending the arms to Ukraine, saying, “and so we’re building that up. But we have a lot. We have a lot of the mid-level stuff too. I mean, more than we could ever use, no matter what.”

“The Patriots, in particular, are being built,” he says.

On July 2nd, the Pentagon has said that it is reviewing weapons deliveries to allies around the world as reports grow of concerns over dwindling stockpiles.

July 24th, Mark Cancian, who worked on the Department of Defense’s budget strategy and war funding while at the Pentagon, said it could take two to five years for US stockpiles just to reach pre-Iran war levels.

July 25th, CENTCOM chief urged halt Hormuz strikes as "targets running out" or is it munition is running out?

On July 26th, US representative to the UN Mike Waltz blames Biden for depleted stockpiles, while most munitions were supplied by European countries.

Trump says the US and Israel are ‘pretty close’ on Iran

Trump has told reporters that the US and Israel are “pretty close when it comes to Iran”.

He said that there’s a “good chance something will happen” with the US talks with Tehran, which he has just announced.

Trump says US and Israel ‘largely aligned’ on Iran despite reports

Donald Trump has long maintained that diplomacy is the preferred option for resolving the dispute with Iran.

But at the same time, while speaking to reporters on board Air Force One and en route to the US state of Michigan, he said that while he believes there is the opportunity for diplomacy, he also said he believes there is a narrow window for diplomacy to take place.

In other words, that it could be measured in days or weeks, not months.

We also know that the US president has said he does believe that something is going to happen, and that his and Netanyahu’s views on Iran are largely aligned.

But there has been reporting here in the US that there are some differences, namely the pause that Trump has put in place over the last three days in terms of Iranian strikes, something that Netanyahu is rumored to be pushing to stop.

In other words, Netanyahu wants the US to exert maximum pressure on Iran in order to force diplomacy.

Trump to ask Putin if Russian satellites are helping Iran

Trump says he will ⁠ask Russian President Vladimir Putin if ‌Russian satellites are helping Tehran to direct strikes in the Middle ⁠East.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Ukraine has recorded Russian satellite surveillance of the Gulf states and US military facilities located there.

“I’ll ask Putin ⁠about it. We’ll find ⁠out,” he ⁠told reporters ⁠on board Air Force One.

Iran says ready for renewed US attacks but diplomacy also remains an option

Iran’s political and military establishment has been sending out a two-sided message.

The army and Revolutionary Guards say there will be repercussions if the US decides to continue its attacks. On the other hand, the political establishment is employing rhetoric to try to depict that the door for diplomacy is neither closed nor open.

However, the entirety of any negotiated settlement, based on what the Iranian officials are saying, is quite engulfed by this cloud of mistrust in Tehran pertaining to any rapprochement towards the US.

All in all, the situation is marked by ambiguity.

For a limited period of time, there is currently a sort of ceasefire in place, but that this is still a breakable situation, and there is anticipation that there could be a renewed wave of confrontation.

Many points of contention continue to remain between the US and Iran: the Strait of Hormuz, the nuclear dossier, the removal of sanctions, frozen assets and war reparations.

We have to keep waiting to see whether all of these issues will be settled within the trajectory of diplomacy or through another round of confrontation.

Trump says US has destroyed Iran’s navy, air force and leadership

US President Trump says the US has destroyed Iran’s “navy, we’ve destroyed their air force, we’ve destroyed their leadership, we’ve destroyed their anti-aircraft weaponry.”

“Their drones are being made at a rate of about 7 percent,” he added, during a speech at the General Motors test site in Michigan.

He also said the US had destroyed most of Iran’s drone and missile manufacturing capability.

“Right now they’re talking to us about making a deal, but if we didn’t do it tough, there would be no talk.”

Trump says the US is ‘beating the hell’ out of Iran and friendly negotiations ongoing

Trump says Iran has been “the bully of the Middle East” for 47 to 50 years.

He said that US President Barack Obama thought it was possible to bribe Iran, but that “you can’t bribe them, you gotta beat them, and we’re beating the hell out of them”.

“We’ll see how it turns out,” he added. “Right now there are very friendly negotiations going on.”

Trump says Iran is pleading the US to stop its naval blockade

Trump has asked a crowd at General Motors in Michigan: “How good is our navy with a blockade?”

Referring to the US naval blockade on Iran, he said that: “Not one boat gets in”.

He added that Iran is saying: “Please, please, no blockade”.

The US is ‘winning big time’ with Iran, Trump says

The president says he is making the “largest-ever investment in the United States Armed Forces,” adding that the US has the strongest military in the world, and that he is using it now.

“We’re winning big time with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” he said, and “we’re ensuring that they’re never having a nuclear weapon.”

“It’s very simple,” he said, adding: “If you understood the power of the nuclear weapons, you’d understand exactly what I was saying.”

Iran says any US attempt to implement maritime blockade is escalatory action

Iran’s top joint military command says that it will view any attempt by the US to implement an “illegal” maritime blockade as an escalation of the regional conflict.

The Quds Force headquarters added that it “will not leave any threat or act of aggression by that country’s terrorist army unanswered and will take action against it”, as reported by Iran’s Mehr news agency.

Iran’s health minister says 60 killed, 670 injured in recent US attacks

Mohammad Reza Zafarghandi said that 60 Iranian citizens were killed and about 670 injured in attacks by the United States in the south of the country, over a period of between 10 and 12 days, according to Iranian news agency reports.

Trump unwilling to reveal details of any deal with Iran until negotiations conclude

Trump hasn’t offered any indication as to how a deal with Iran might look. This is because negotiations are ongoing and a lot of diplomacy is often done behind the curtain before details are revealed.

However, Trump has a number of red lines. These include no nuclear weapons for Iran and making sure that the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. That has certainly been the flashpoint that led to the 13 days of bombings and attacks.

The US also wants to discuss proxies, because the Houthis are back in the equation, and Iran’s missile program.

Trump says that the past 13 days of attacks have forced the Iranians back into discussions. However, some people in Washington DC feel that 13 days of bombing didn’t do anything to move the needle in negotiations. The Iranians seemed as if they were locked into position, so more bombing was not really an option.

Trump says the US has more than enough ammunitions. Some believe that because of the amount of missiles, bombs and material used in the early days of the war, the US is still planning to catch up on what they have stockpiled and so they didn’t really want to launch a major all-out war.

It was certainly on the table for Trump, who was discussing it with his closest allies and advisers on Friday. They decided not to go ahead, so to go to a level of discussions instead that Trump would like to lead to a negotiation and then a final deal.

Iran presents a cautious, two-sided message on resumed talks

Iranian officials are presenting the resumption of talks with the US cautiously, and there are clear traces of mistrust in how they’re framing it. Tehran is essentially sending a two-sided message, oscillating between war and diplomacy.

On the one hand, Iran’s army has signaled its readiness for confrontation, warning that any future US attacks would be met with even more crushing and stronger retaliatory strikes. On the other, the foreign ministry spokesperson says there are currently no talks with the United States – even as mediated communication continues behind the scenes, brokered by Pakistan, Qatar and other actors. Officials maintain that mistrust still prevails throughout this process.

The situation can be understood through three features. First, ambiguity: This isn’t the first time Trump has claimed negotiations were progressing well, only for Iran to be attacked mid-talks – something that’s now happened twice in the past two years. Second, fragility: There have been no US attacks over the past two or three nights, but the situation remains pregnant with the potential for another round of escalation. Third, complexity: Any resolution would need to address the nuclear file, sanctions relief, war reparations, the Strait of Hormuz situation, and the naval blockade, among other points of contention between Washington and Tehran.

Trump might want to ‘declare victory and move on’

Trump might want to cut his losses, declare victory against Iran, and move on, but it might not be so easy for the US president, says Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow with the Middle East Institute.

“Trump has moved the goal posts a few times over the past five months,” Vatanka said. “With the mid-term election just a few months away, time isn’t necessarily on Trump’s side, but he can certainly move in that precise direction; that is, declare victory and move on,” he said.

“One of the biggest problems that Trump has had is that he has been unable to formulate a vision of what this war was all about, because the Strait of Hormuz wasn’t a problem for anyone before the war started. It became a problem after the war, so that was an own goal”.

Netanyahu arrives in Washington, DC, for Trump talks

The Israeli prime minister has touched down on US soil, according to media reports in Israel.

Netanyahu will meet with Trump at the White House on Tuesday, before attending a memorial service for the late pro-Israel Republican Senator Lindsey Graham.

Oil prices fall to lowest level in more than a week

Oil prices fell to their lowest level, in more than a week, at the close of trading on Monday. Brent crude futures fell 8.7% or by $8.42, to settle at $88.36 per barrel, the lowest since July 17.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also declined, dropping $6.70, or 7.5%, to close at $82.61 per barrel.