• US President Donald Trump expects the war on Iran to end “pretty soon,” telling reporters during questions on global and domestic energy prices that he does not think “they can go much longer.”
• Trump again dismisses claims of ammunition shortages, asserting that the US possesses “an unlimited supply” of weapons. Addressing reporters in Washington, he said that the country remains “in very good shape” with “literally massive amounts of ammunition.”
• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian states that the US has applied “maximum” economic pressure, noting that Iran loses roughly 230 million cubic meters of gas daily as a result of US-Israeli attacks.

Oil gains to settle at over $82 a barrel

Brent crude futures have risen $3.04, or 3.83 percent, to settle at $82.49 a barrel.

US West Texas Intermediate futures gained $2.07, or 2.75 percent, to $77.29 on Thursday.

Iran’s Fars news agency reported, citing a lawmaker, that an Iranian parliamentary committee is reviewing a preliminary bill that would bar US, Israeli and other “hostile” vessels from transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

The draft bill would impose fines of up to 20 percent of a ship’s cargo value for violations of the proposed restrictions.

India’s Modi, Netanyahu discuss West Asia situation in call

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi discussed the situation in West Asia with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a phone call.

In a post on X, Modi said the two leaders also “reviewed the progress across various aspects of the special strategic partnership between India and Israel, which continues to strengthen and develop steadily”.

Modi faced criticism for his late February 2026 visit to Israel, which took place just days before the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, with opponents calling the trip ill-timed.

Tensions rise in Hormuz as Tehran drafts bill to ban ships of ‘hostile’ countries

The situation at the Strait of Hormuz remains precarious after a very brief period of de-escalation. Explosions have been heard again around Iran’s Qeshm Island. Iran’s state media says these are connected to operations against what it says are hostile targets.

This comes as the parliament in Tehran has begun discussing a draft bill to tighten Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz. Under the proposed legislation, hostile countries, such as the US and Israel, will be banned from transiting the waterway, with the bill imposing fines on those who violate this measure.

Meanwhile, the speaker of Iran’s parliament and chief negotiator, Ghalibaf, has posted comments on social media once again over the issue of the trust deficiency between Iran and the US, accusing Washington of alternating between military threats and calls for diplomacy.

Domestically, the Iranian Intelligence Ministry has announced the apprehension of 21 people, accusing them of working with Israel’s Mossad intelligence service in Kirman province.

These developments come as Iran and Oman are now at the final stage of drafting a temporary agreement to arrange the passage of commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, as the US naval blockade on Iran’s southern ports continues.

Trump faces ‘escalation trap’ in Iran

After failing to defeat Iran with air and naval power, Trump will likely deploy ground forces, argues University of Chicago political science professor Robert Pape, the author of the Escalation Trap Substack.

“President Trump may not do ground operations in the next few days, even the next few weeks, but he has already seen the limits of air power. He’s being told that on a daily basis. He’s also seen the limits of naval power—well, there’s only one branch left, that’s ground power,” Pape said.

Pape said a US ground operation might also prove unsuccessful against Iran, but that Trump has no option left but to escalate.

“This is the escalation trap: either he moves in that direction, or he surrenders, and Iran becomes the fourth centre of world power. This would be a stunning defeat for President Trump. His legacy in history would be in tatters,” said Pape.

Trump will not accept joint Iranian-Omani control, analyst says

Here is more analysis from University of Chicago political science professor Robert Pape.

He says Trump will not accept any deal that leads to Iran and Oman jointly controlling the Strait of Hormuz, given his backtracking after the June 17 memorandum of understanding with Iran.

“Trump will oscillate back and forth,” Pape said, adding, “I don’t think Trump will be able to accept Iranian and Omani control of the Strait of Hormuz for more than a day or two.”

“As we head to the midterms, President Trump will want a symbolic victory. It may be taking an island, taking a beachhead on part of Iran’s coast. That is the kind of symbolic victory that Trump may be able to make use of as we get into the midterms,” he added.

The Mecca Agreement

Pakistan PM’s Saudi Arabia visit comes at ‘pivotal moment’ for region

The Pakistani prime minister’s visit to Saudi Arabia is hugely significant as it comes at a pivotal moment for the entire region. Regional security remains paramount, not just to Saudi Arabia, but also to Turkiye and Pakistan, both of which share a border with Iran.

Any fallout would have a direct impact on those countries. This has been in the making since April of this year, when the first so-called R4 countries – Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye – met in Riyadh. Spearheading the talks, they tasked Pakistan with leading negotiations between Iran and the United States to try and find an end to the conflict.

In the last 24 hours, there have been several meetings between the foreign ministers of those four countries. This appears to be the moment where they essentially ironed out the details.

As a result, the region’s major powers – combining military prowess, technology, energy, and Saudi Arabia’s deep pockets – are coming together. It is a significant step, especially given what we have been seeing in the region after the Iran war.

Pakistani PM Sharif kicks off Saudi Arabia visit

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has begun a three-day visit to Saudi Arabia after his arrival in the country on Thursday for talks focused on bilateral cooperation and regional developments.

Early today, Sharif performed Umrah in the holy city of Mecca, according to his office.

Sharif is accompanied by Field Marshal and Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, and other senior officials.

He is scheduled to hold talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on ways to strengthen bilateral cooperation, as well as regional and international developments.

The visit comes as Pakistan and Qatar continue mediation efforts between Washington and Tehran.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also scheduled to pay a one-day working visit to Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to Turkey's Communications Director Burhanettin Duran.

During the visit, Erdogan is expected to meet Prince Mohammed and Sharif.

Islamabad seeks economic backing amid Iran war during Saudi Arabia visit

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is in Saudi Arabia for a three-day visit, which comes “against the backdrop of heightened tensions in the Gulf”, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement.

“This visit is taking place against the backdrop of the short-term effects of the regional situation, while it will further expand strategic cooperation, bilateral relations, and coordination and collaboration between the two countries on regional and international affairs,” Sharif’s office said in another statement on Thursday as he boarded the plane to Riyadh.

Sharif is accompanied by Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, army chief Asim Munir, and other cabinet members.

During his third visit to Saudi Arabia this year, the Pakistani leader will meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, “in which the longstanding brotherly relations and partnership between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia will be further strengthened, and the regional situation will be discussed”, Sharif’s office said.

Turkey's state media says defence deal to be signed with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan

Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are set to sign a trilateral defense agreement on Friday, security sources tell Ankara’s state-run Anadolu agency.

The joint defense agreement among the three countries will be signed in the Saudi city of Jeddah, the sources added.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan departed earlier on Friday for Saudi Arabia for a one-day working visit, where he is expected to meet Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan expected to sign ‘some kind of defence pact’

Murat Aslan, an associate professor of international politics at Hasan Kalyoncu University, says that while the scope of the Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreement has yet to be reported, it can be expected to cover “deterrence, capacity building or some kind of defence pact”.

“We know that Saudi Arabia is dependent on importing their defence products, weapons or equipment, especially from the United States for decades, and we know that it’s not cost-effective and they need to build their own defence sector inside Saudi Arabia,” Aslan said.

“Turkey and Saudi Arabia share two different issues: First of all, Iran, and you can add Pakistan to that… have shared borders and there is a great sense of threat in the minds of Saudis that Iran may have an impact on their security, so this pact will somehow [expand] their security,” he added.

Turkey's President Erdogan arrives in Saudi Arabia for trilateral talks

Erdogan has landed at King Abdulaziz International Airport ahead of trilateral talks with the Saudi crown prince and Pakistani prime minister.

The Turkish president was greeted at the airport by Saudi officials along with Turkey's Ambassador to Riyadh and its Consul General in Jeddah.

Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan sign joint defence deal

Defence pact aims to promote peace, security, and stability in the region and beyond, in pursuit of a secure and prosperous future, according to a statement by Pakistan’s foreign ministry.

Previously, the Turkish state media reported that the deal was expected to be signed by the three countries’ leaders in Saudi Arabia.

New defence deal of Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan

A statement by the Pakistani Foreign Ministry says that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Pakistani Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif have held a joint defence summit.

It said that a joint defence deal was signed in Saudi Arabia “guided by the longstanding historical ties among the three states, based on the enduring bonds of brotherhood and Islamic solidarity that unite them, and building upon their shared strategic interests and longstanding defence cooperation”.

The agreement reflects “the three states’ shared commitment to further strengthening their collective security and to promoting peace, security, and stability in the region and beyond, in pursuit of a secure and prosperous future”, the statement added.

It stressed: “The agreement is intended to strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression, and stipulates that any armed attack against any one of the three states shall be regarded as an attack against them all.”

The new defense pact does not bring peace and stability, only deterrence because it contains a clause which is similar to NATO's Article 5.

If one of the signatories is attacked either by Iran or Ansarullah Houthis in Yemen, it will be an attack on all signatories.

This puts a question on Pakistan as the current main mediator between the US and Iran, as its signing yields a anti-Iran position.

At the time of writing this comment, we heard analysts expressing their worries that the Israelis might join while Netanyahu started the whole war and created the spillover to Lebanon.

Trilateral pact presents new ‘security architecture’ for the region

This is more than a diplomatic get-together and the signing of an agreement.

This essentially puts three of the largest Muslim populations together on the roadmap for joint peace, for deterring any act of aggression against them, for making sure that they are in tune with each other when it comes to intelligence sharing, gathering all of the information that is required, and also enhancing cooperation in all sorts of spheres – whether it’s energy, defence expenditure or manufacturing, among others.

Pakistan brings with it, obviously, its nuclear arsenal, battle-hardened military, and munitions it has been supplying. Turkiye, with its advanced drone and munitions systems, is a NATO member, combined with the economic power of Saudi Arabia.

The three of them combined now present a force that will take this region towards a different security architecture than the one in place over the last few decades, especially in the wake of the Iran war.

"Pakistan brings with it, obviously, its nuclear arsenal, battle-hardened military, and munitions it has been supplying."

Is this the way to bring peace in the region?

Many in Ankara say this is a historic and pivotal moment

According to officials in Ankara, the regional developments have indeed forced these countries to come together.

Post-October 7 has changed the region dramatically, with the Israeli actions and expansionism.

And now there is the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing attacks on Iran, as well as Iran’s response to the regional countries.

So there have been several layers of necessity converging, and forcing these three big countries to come together and sign this binding agreement.

A Turkish official said there is no plan, for now, for other countries to join this pact.

The official added, however, that countries such as Qatar, Egypt and others should join the pact, adding that they are open to receiving more members to make it a regional alliance and build deterrence.

These integrated defence policies are also expected to enhance diplomatic relations among the members, including integrated diplomatic efforts in case of a crisis.

Many here in the capital of Turkiye say this is a defining, historic and pivotal moment.

"And now there is the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing attacks on Iran, as well as Iran’s response to the regional countries."

The Turks are ignoring the fact that it is about:

• A war on Iran, not a war by Iran.
• A war which Trump joined, not started.
• A war waged across borders, as Trump attacked Iran from countries in the region and two countries in Europe, not from his own country.
• A war across borders which supposed to have been approved by a mandate from the UN Security Council therefore illegal.
• A war that is purely political, not militarily because it was about regime change, later "Iran must not have nuclear weapons" because regime change has failed, and have cost the career of two Israeli senior Mossad agents.
• A blockade by Iran on the same day of February 28th when Netanyahu was assassinating Khamenei while bombarding Tehran's oil depots.

Trilateral agreement ‘very much defensive in nature’

The pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan comes at a time when there are “clear-cut explicit threats in the region,” says Abdulaziz Alghashian, senior non-resident fellow at the Gulf International Forum.

“There are a lot of sources of military threat that are manifesting before our very eyes and also nightmare scenarios that are just manifesting before our very eyes. So I think there is an undoubted sense of need for security,” Alghashian said.

“I think the alliance is very much defensive in nature and I think they have communicated the fact that this is defensive in nature and that they are trying to make sure this is not entrapment,” he added.

While Alghashian explained that ambiguity over the details of the agreement has served “the purpose of collective security,” now is the time to flesh out scenarios in which the pact is used.

Pact with Pakistan, Turkiye will not bring security to Saudi Arabia, warns Iranian MP

Iranian MP Ebrahim Rezaei has called on Riyadh to change its policies.

He said on X: “Saudis must know that a paper agreement with Turkiye and Pakistan will not bring them security, just as years of one-sided nursing to the Americans did not bring them security.”

“Reform your policies so that you do not need to beg for security from others,” said Rezaei, who is also a member of parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission.

Saudi-Turkiye-Pakistan security pact has ‘substantive deterrence aspects’

The joint defence deal between Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan signals a major “security realignment” with international implications, says London-based military analyst Alex Alfirraz Scheers.

He said the regional pact offers the three countries additional protection amid concerns about US security guarantees.

“There have been a lot of doubts about whether the US is a reliable security guarantor… whether the US is actually a reliable provider of weaponry, especially in the form of air capabilities, such as fighter jets,” said Scheers, “not to mention whether it is actually expedient for countries like Saudi Arabia to rely on the US to defend vital Saudi interests”.

However, he said the scope of the pact remains unclear. “The deterrence aspects of it… are substantive, but what are the protocols involved here? What are the capabilities and the posture that’s going to be shared? That’s still something that needs to be ironed out,” Scheers added.

"The deterrence aspects of it… are substantive,.."

We commented earlier here: The new defense pact does not bring peace and stability, only deterrence because it contains a clause which is similar to NATO's Article 5.

Turkey says defence pact with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan ‘not aimed at any particular country’

In a post on X, the Turkish presidency’s communications director said “the Mecca Agreement, which is not aimed at any particular country, will strengthen the shared security and collective deterrence” of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey.

As a result, Burhanettin Duran said the pact will significantly contribute “to the preservation of peace and stability in our region”.

“the Mecca Agreement, which is not aimed at any particular country"

One of the three signatories must have taken the initiative to organize this meeting in response to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing attacks on Iran, as well as Iran’s response to the regional countries.

Saudi Arabia-Turkiye-Pakistan pact not a ‘military axis or sectarian bloc’: Saudi minister

Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Minister for Public Diplomacy, Rayed Krimly, is the latest official to speak out on the Saudi Arabia-Pakistan-Turkiye defence pact, saying it is not intended to create a “military axis or sectarian bloc” or replace the kingdom’s Arab Gulf relations.

“The agreement does not represent any intention to build a military axis or a sectarian/religious bloc,” Krimly posted on X. “It is not linked to nuclear ambitions or an arms race, but rather to building sustainable, self-reliant capabilities.”

He added that the agreement does not threaten Saudi Arabia’s “strategic relations at the Gulf, Arab and international levels,” supersede any existing international agreements, or threaten any other country’s security.

Saudi-Turkiye-Pakistan pact could be the beginning of a broader regional alliance

The Mecca Pact signed by Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan could grow to encompass more regional members, says Abdulla Banndar Al-Etaibi, assistant professor in International Affairs at Qatar University.

“This is, I think, a pivotal shift in the region,” he said. “Something I don’t think the US would dislike, because they would love to have more US-supported alliances in the world, and this is part of the defensive arrangements and steps that the US is actually pushing for.”

He said that the pact is “built on other trilateral and bilateral agreements. Like the Pakistanis and the Turkish, they have extensive security agreements in the region. We’re talking about Turkiye with Qatar, Pakistan with Kuwait… a lot of them.”

“I think we are at the beginning. This is at the political stage of just announcing it. It’s not on-the-ground yet,” he added

“I think all GCC countries will look at it as a good thing, a good step, that’s bringing the region together.

“But I think they are indirectly in, with the trilateral and bilateral agreements they already signed with the members. And maybe we’re going to see more of them on the way.”

Pact undermines Pakistan’s position as a mediator with Iran

Mostafa Khoshcheshm, a professor at the University of Applied Science and Technology, says that the joint defence agreement signed in Mecca may not bother Iran militarily, but carries implications for Pakistan’s mediation role.

“Considering the nature of this alliance, I don’t think it will even bother Tehran,” Khoshcheshm said. “Because the Pakistanis, we understand, need Saudi investment. But they never took part in any offensive against Yemen. They are there in Saudi Arabia just to defend it.”

“When it comes to Turkiye, the case is more interesting, because it’s not an ideological alliance, like their security pact with Qatar,” he says.

“Turkiye has shown in the war between Russia and Ukraine that it would not go too far on either side. It also shows that whenever they go for expanding influence in the region, like in Syria, they do it on a calculated basis, so they do it very cautiously.”

Khoshcheshm said, however, that the pact may increase skepticism towards Pakistan’s mediation role.

“There are many in Tehran who, since the very beginning, were critical, saying that Pakistan was tilted towards the United States and Saudi Arabia, he said. “Now, this kind of alliance reinforcement with Saudi Arabia would reinvigorate such statements.”

“I don’t think Pakistan would waste this impartial role,” he said. “But it has undermined their position as a mediator.”

"But it has undermined their position as a mediator."

We commented earlier on this page:

"This puts a question on Pakistan as the current main mediator between the US and Iran, as its signing yields a anti-Iran position."

Erdogan says defence pact with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan targets no country

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said the defence pact he signed today with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan “does not target any country” and welcomes other friendly nations seeking peace, prosperity and stability in the region.

Writing on the Turkish social media platform NSosyal, Erdogan said the agreement, based on the principle of collective deterrence, would strengthen security and defence cooperation, joint defence industry projects and counterterrorism efforts.

"Erdogan says defence pact with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan targets no country"

The Mecca Summit was not just a sudden one-day event but has been prepared, which needed weeks.

But, the signatories didn't mention anything which could allow us to understand that a protocol exist, which include the regulation of how to respond when one of the signatories come under attack.

Mecca Pact partly driven by shared concerns over Abraham Accords

Imtiaz Gul, executive director of the Islamabad-based Centre for Research and Security Studies, says that the Mecca Pact is driven in part by fears that the US will try to expand the Abraham Accords with Israel.

“I think Pakistan needs the United States for international recognition, international endorsement of whatever order we have in Pakistan,” he said.

However, he says that “the Abraham Accords are primarily driving a lot of fears within the Muslim community, whether it’s Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Iran or Turkiye”.

“Although Pakistan doesn’t currently fear much from Israel, there’s a big lobby within Pakistan which seems convinced that the expansion of the Abraham Accords, neutralizing Iran and eventually neutralizing opposition from within Pakistan to the Israeli expansion, is a possibility. And that’s why they really need to close ranks.”

Citing Trump’s insistence that Saudi Arabia join the Accords after signing a nuclear technology deal with the kingdom, he says that “as long as Trump is in the White House, this fear will loom large over all these countries to become part of the Abraham Accords”.

‘Abraham Accords nowhere to be seen’

The Mecca Pact is likely to counteract the military influence of Israel and reduce the chance of Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords to normalize relations with Israel, says Nawaf Obaid, senior research fellow at King’s College London.

“Having these three countries [Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye] come together in the way they have – it’s clearly a way to mitigate and at some point to negate a freewheeling Israel,” Obaid said.

“The Abraham Accords are nowhere to be seen today,” he added, saying it would be “unfathomable” for Saudi Arabia to sign on to anything resembling such an agreement at this stage.

Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif hails ‘historic pact’ with Saudi Arabia and Turkey

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif says he is “honoured” to have signed a joint defence agreement in Mecca alongside Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

In a post on X, Sharif called the deal a shield of peace for generations to come and credited Pakistani army chief Asim Munir for helping bring the pact about.

Iraqi PM discusses security cooperation with Saudi general intelligence chief

Iraq’s Prime Minister, Ali al-Zaidi, has discussed efforts to enhance regional security cooperation with Saudi Arabia’s general intelligence chief, Khalid bin Ali Al Humaidan, according to the Iraqi PM’s office.

Al-Zaidi reiterated Iraq’s commitment to strengthening cooperation with Saudi Arabia and stressed Baghdad’s position that Iraq would not be used as a “launching pad” for activities harming any foreign state, his office statement said.

It added that both parties agreed on the need for enhanced security cooperation and information exchange.

Islamic countries’ alliance welcomes Saudi-Turkiye-Pakistan defence pact

Organization of Islamic Cooperation Secretary-General Hissein Brahim Taha has welcomed the signing of the “Mecca Agreement on Joint Defense between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan”, in a statement issued by the organization on X.

“This Agreement constitutes a fundamental pillar for supporting security and stability in the region and across the Muslim world,” the statement said.

Turkiye says new defence pact aligns with NATO commitments

Turkiye has said its new defence agreement with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia does not contradict its commitments to the NATO alliance.

“The agreement is not in contradiction with the commitments of Turkiye’s existing international alliances, including those at the heart of NATO,” the government’s anti-disinformation service said in a post on X.

In fact, it was an additional cooperation mechanism that supported regional security, the statement added. “Turkiye’s development of regional partnerships is not an alternative to its NATO membership,” it said.

The service said it was responding to “baseless claims and manipulative posts” criticising the new agreement, without mentioning specific attacks.

As we have been reporting, three countries signed the joint decree on Friday in Riyadh, amid renewed fighting in Yemen and the US-Iran war.

 

Former Qatari PM hails Mecca agreement

Qatar’s former prime minister, Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani, has welcomed the joint defence agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan.

In a post on X, he said the deal “is an important agreement and a step that calls for optimism”.

Will the new defence pact hold when a member comes under attack?

In Ankara, the assessment is that the developments after October 7th of 2023 have transformed the region into an era of uncertainty.

Israel’s war on Gaza, its attacks on several countries in the region, and the renewed wars on Iran have forced regional countries to increasingly look to each other, not just outside powers, for their security.

So now, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye have committed themselves to closer military cooperation. But most significantly, the agreement says an attack on one member will be considered as an attack on all. It’s very much similar to NATO’s Article 5.

For Ankara, it is a major strategic game. Turkiye already has NATO’s second-largest army and one of the world’s fastest-growing defence industries.

But this agreement will allow Turkiye to further expand its strategic reach to the Gulf and South Asia, and also, through the joint weapons programme, Turkiye will have better access to the financial resources for its defence industry. And also, Ankara believes that this agreement will have a significant positive impact on its economy.

But the real task lies ahead. It’s not what the agreement says on paper that will define its success, but it is what happens when a member comes under attack, either by a state or non-state actors.

Will the others come to its defence?

End Mecca Agreement

Oil prices climb to $83 a barrel

Oil prices are continuing their upward trajectory, with Brent crude futures gaining 99 cents as of 00:10 GMT, or 1.2 percent, to $83.48 a barrel.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude went up 85 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $78.84 a barrel.

The gains came amid mounting anxieties over navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, after Tehran, in coordination with Muscat, proposed barring ships belonging to “hostile” nations from the waterway and levying steep fines on any violators.

Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic drops sharply, data shows

Shipping data shows traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to 33 vessels between Monday and Thursday, down from 50 the previous week, Reuters reports.

Citing data from ship-tracking company Kpler, Reuters said that just four vessels transited the strait on Thursday, including the very large crude carrier Nissos Kea, which was carrying about two million barrels of Basrah crude loaded in Iraq. Of the remaining three, two were liquefied petroleum gas carriers and one was a minor bulk carrier. Only six crude oil tankers have exited the strait this week.

Meanwhile, in the Red Sea’s Bab al-Mandeb Strait, 26 vessels transited on Thursday, up from 19 the previous day, according to Kpler data. Ship-tracking company LSEG counted 28 vessels over the same period using a different tracking methodology.

Chinese and Indian refiners said to be seeking vessels for Hormuz

Several Chinese and Indian refiners have sought vessels this week to enter the strait and load crude at Iraq’s Basrah Oil Terminal, attracted by steep discounts, shipping sources tell the Reuters news agency.

However, no vessels have been fixed so far, as ship-owners are wary of entering the waterway, they said.

Iraq’s state oil marketer SOMO offered discounts of close to $30 a barrel for Basrah Heavy and Basrah Medium crude to customers for August loading.

Just six crude oil tankers have exited the strait this week, Kpler data showed. A total of 21 vessels have entered it so far, mostly via the Iranian route.

Typically, about 130 to 140 ships would transit the strait daily before Iran closed the waterway at the outset of the US-Israel war on February 28.

US is facing missile shortage problem due to war ‘dragging on’

Michael Stephens, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, says that for months, reports have been that the US was running low on its interceptors and would continue to do so if the war continued.

“The fact is it’s more dangerous for US military personnel to operate in the region as a result of these missile shortages. It’s putting strain on other commands in East Asia as well, so the problem is very acute,” Stephens said.

Amid Trump’s call on media organisations to cease reports on US missile stockpiles, Stephens explained that “facts are facts.

“The problem, I think, with taking this line is that at some point, political opponents will realise this is a weakness you’re trying to cover up, and they’ll attack you for it,” Stephens said.

“Mid-terms are three months away. The Democrats will be looking at this, going, ‘You haven’t managed your defence arsenal in the way that you should’… but the point is this: The US is facing a problem as a result of this war dragging on,” he added.

US opens test ranges to small companies to get weapons quicker

The US Army says it is opening test ranges to private companies developing missiles, drones and other weapons in hopes of buying them more quickly for use on the battlefield.

Army Secretary Dan Driscoll told reporters at a military testing range in Michigan that the effort will cut months and sometimes years of red tape, which typically stifles military contractors.

“It can take 12 to 18 months for a company that wants to go test the thing that can make a soldier’s life better, that can increase their lethality, and that can keep them safer,” Driscoll said. “That is not sufficient.”

The army is opening its ranges as the Pentagon grapples with the costs of the war on Iran, which has diminished the nation’s stockpiles of advanced weapons that sometimes cost millions of dollars for a single missile or interceptor.

“We are inviting industry to get in the mud with our soldiers, to innovate, to invest behind them,” Driscoll said in a roundtable call. “And then our commitment as an Army is, we will purchase the things that will make our soldiers more lethal, more safe, and keep our country safer.”

Iranian official signals ‘positive’ messages received from US

Wesam Bahrani, a journalist based in Tehran, says that amid reports that the US is running low on interceptors, the bigger question is what the status of talks with Iran is.

“The answer to that came from Deputy Foreign Minister Kerem Gharibabadi, who said that we are receiving some form of messages from the United States. He appeared to signal that these are positive messages, although he declined to say what sort of messages, or where those messages were coming from,” Bahrani reports

“Iranians here, going forward with these negotiations, have to first settle the issue of bilateral talks with Oman, clinching a deal there, setting new boundaries on the Strait of Hormuz and from the Iranian side,” he added.

Russian president discusses situation in Gulf and Ukraine with UAE counterpart

Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the ongoing situation in the Gulf and Ukraine during a phone call with United Arab Emirates President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, according to the Kremlin.

It added that Putin ⁠had expressed his ⁠gratitude to the UAE for ⁠its role ⁠in organizing ⁠exchanges of prisoners of war and detainees between ‌Russia and Ukraine.

Iranian official says Hormuz framework has been agreed with Oman, says state media

A framework of understanding with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz has been agreed upon, says Hassan Ghashghavi, an MP and spokesman for the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Commission.

“The general framework of the understanding with Oman has been determined and the final text and details will be announced soon,” Ghashghavi told the official IRNA news agency.

“Of course, the final decision must be made at higher levels.”

Trump’s latest thoughts on US-Iran talks

On the war with Iran, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office: “I think it’s going to end pretty soon. I don’t think they can go much longer.”

He added that he is involved in negotiations with Tehran. “I think we’re doing fine,” Trump said.

Iran has denied it is holding direct talks with the US, however, saying it is speaking solely to Oman about control of the Strait of Hormuz.

On Saturday last week, Trump cancelled a planned large-scale military attack on Iran, claiming that Tehran and allies in the region had asked the US to call off the strikes as a diplomatic breakthrough was close.

He reacted angrily this week to US media reports that the US may, in fact, be running low on missiles in the region.

Efforts for European naval mission in Strait of Hormuz stall

The US first raised the idea in March for an international maritime coalition to secure shipping in the waterway, as US President Donald Trump called on allies, as well as China, to send warships as part of the effort.

Most countries initially declined or were non-committal, though the UK and France left the door open to participating.

US officials continued to promote the idea of a maritime coalition as its war against Iran dragged on and as Trump lambasted US allies for what he deemed insufficient support for Washington in the conflict.

In mid-April, then-British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced plans for the UK and France to lead an international mission to secure shipping in the strait, stressing it would be “strictly peaceful and defensive”.

ADNOC says 15 vessels attacked since start of conflict, including three this week

The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) says 15 of its vessels have come under attack since the US-Israeli war against Iran broke out – three of them this week.

The attacks killed one crew member and injured 20, said ADNOC, adding that it is taking “all necessary measures to protect our people, assets and operations”.

“Freedom of navigation and the safe, uninterrupted passage of commercial shipping through international waterways must be respected and protected,” said ADNOC in a media release.

Iran’s deputy FM says regional security should be managed ‘without foreign intervention’

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi has said regional security matters should be handled only by countries of the region, without any foreign intervention, and that conditions appear to be in place for renewed security talks with fellow Gulf states.

In comments carried by Iran’s official IRNA news agency, Gharibabadi said Iran had documented attacks launched from the territory of some neighboring countries at the UN Security Council, including a limited number of cases he described as “direct attacks”.

He added that Iran believes regional countries have concluded that any further escalation or prolonged military action would threaten their own security.

US announces measures targeting ‘financial lifelines of Iran’s ruling elite’ 

The US government says it has taken steps to “dismantle a web of currency exchange houses and shell companies” it claims Iran has used to evade sanctions and “secretly move hundreds of millions of dollars”.

In a statement, US State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott said the US Treasury had taken action against the “illicit” networks, without naming specific entities.

“This action demonstrates the Trump Administration’s continued maximum pressure on Iran by cutting off resources the regime uses to threaten regional stability, support terrorism, and advance its military capabilities”, he said.

US targets Dubai-based crypto-exchange in latest Iran sanctions

The US Treasury says it has sanctioned a major Dubai-based cryptocurrency exchange and its founder, accusing them of laundering funds to benefit Iran’s IRGC and other Iranian government actors.

The sanctioned crypto-exchange – named Shelbit – and its founder – Iranian expatriate Siavash Kayvanpour – are part of a ” a multi-nation network of companies that support illicit digital currency activity,” said the US Treasury.

The Treasury also said it sanctioned Iran-based digital assets exchange Aban Tether, accusing it of processing “millions of dollars’ worth of transactions involving previously designated Iranian digital asset exchanges.”

Separately, the US Treasury announced it was sanctioning several other Dubai-based exchange houses it accused of helping Iranian banks move money illicitly.

“Treasury ‌will hunt down and dismantle the illicit financial networks that keep the regime afloat,” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement.

Iran’s Araghchi urges Muslims to unite against ‘malicious outsiders’

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said Iran’s military has proven its ability to confront the “world’s most expensive military” and called on Muslims to “stand together” against “malicious outsiders”.

“Iran’s Powerful Armed Forces have shown their readiness, capability, and might in face of the world’s most expensive military,” said Araghchi in a post on X.

“When Muslims stand together, we can face every challenge by malicious outsiders head-on,” he added. “Time to rely only on ourselves and embrace true brotherhood.”

US’s military posture in Middle East ‘no longer viable’

Nawaf Obaid, senior research fellow at King’s College London, says the Mecca Pact has put Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye at the helm of a new security architecture that extends beyond the Gulf and into the broader Middle East.

“The three most powerful Sunni states… have come together to be able to have not only a say, but to be able to direct the future security architecture of not just the Gulf but the expanded Middle East theatre, which Turkiye and Pakistan both border,” Obaid said.

“We’re at something that’s fundamentally … consequential for the future of the region once this war ends,” he added.

Obaid said that the pact also signals the US’s current military posture in the region, including the location of its bases and the number of permanently deployed troops, “strategically no longer makes sense”.

Iran’s president says country will not back down to ‘coercion’

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has said Iran does not seek war or territorial expansion but will not back down to “coercion”.

In comments carried by Iran’s IRIB broadcaster, Pezeshkian said Iran is acting only to pursue its defence capabilities and security. He reiterated Tehran’s claims that the US has used bases in Gulf countries to target Iran, adding that Washington wants to drive a wedge between Iran and its regional neighbours.

However, Pezeshkian said that Iran had resolved many of its problems with neighbouring states. If pressure and threats against Iran stop, there will be no reason for tensions to persist, he added.

Iran wants to be acknowledged as ‘gatekeeper of Strait of Hormuz’

Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, says Iran wants any new arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz to cement its role as “gatekeeper” of the waterway.

While the US may grant Iran this “symbolic victory”, Vatanka said, Washington will surely resist any Iranian effort to “monetize” its role as gatekeeper. “That is where the likes of Donald Trump will put their foot down and say that is against American interests, against the idea of freedom of navigation at sea,” he said.

Iran could be dragging out its negotiations with Oman over a new protocol for Hormuz so as not to let the US “set the pace of negotiations,” Vatanka continued, adding that there may also be remaining technical issues “that need to be ironed out”.

“Iran essentially wants to decide the pace and the time of the announcement of this new mechanism that we’re all expecting [for Hormuz]”, he said.

US says it has redirected 51 vessels since reinstating Iran blockade

United States Central Command (CENTCOM) announced in a post on X that it has redirected 51 commercial vessels, disabled two, and boarded two others since it reinstated a naval blockade of Iran on July 14.
 

Netanyahu thanks Modi after conversation over situation in West Asia

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has thanked his Indian counterpart, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, after the two discussed the situation in West Asia, and promised to strengthen their partnership.

Quoting Modi’s earlier post on X, Netanyahu wrote in Hebrew, “Together we continue to strengthen the bond between Israel and India”.

Modi has been criticised for visiting Israel in late February, days before the country and the US attacked Iran.