• Washington is demanding Iran issue a public statement today pledging safe passage and a halt to attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, according to US officials.
• According to Iran’s Foreign Ministry, any US breach of its commitments under the MoU will be met with “reciprocal action”.
• Following Iran’s resumption of attacks on international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the US has imposed new Iran-related sanctions.

US official says ‘there will not be a good outcome for Iran’ if Strait is not kept open

The United States has put a number of conditions on the future of an agreement with Iran.

Number one, what we know is that the United States says that all its demands with regard to nuclear limits must be met. According to a US official, we also know that when it comes to nuclear material that the US wants delivered, that must also be met in terms of a condition. Otherwise the United States says that there is no deal.

Having said that, there is diplomacy that continues. And what we’re told from this US official is these talks have been productive.

What we know is that the explanation given to the United States about why the Memorandum of Understanding was broken and ships were fired upon recently in the Strait of Hormuz, is that Iranian officials apparently told the United States that this is because of an errant part in their system.

That is not working… as an excuse for the United States. The United States for its part has issued a bit of an ultimatum to Iran, mainly that not only… there must be a public statement issued that no longer will vessels be fired on, but also that the Strait of Hormuz, or all channels, will remain open. Otherwise the US official says that there will not be a good outcome for Iran.

US is pessimistic over prospects of Iran nuclear deal: WSJ

The Trump administration believes a nuclear accord with Tehran is increasingly improbable, recognizing that a peaceful resolution to cap Iran’s atomic program may be out of reach, reports the Wall Street Journal (WSJ).

Senior US officials noted, according to the WSJ, that Iran’s ongoing failure to respect the interim maritime agreement leaves little hope for a broader pact, with President Trump recently stating: “I don’t know if we’re going to have a deal.”

The officials further warned that “there also cannot be a nuclear deal if Iran fails to hand control of its buried enriched uranium to the US”, adding that Washington possesses low-cost military alternatives to permanently block access to the material.

US, Iran in ‘hot and cold war’ in midst of talks

Iran sees “weakness” in US President Donald Trump’s inconsistent rhetoric on Washington’s negotiations with Tehran, says Harlan Ullman, a former senior US naval officer and chairman of the Killowen Group, an advisory company.

“From Tehran’s position, they heard Donald Trump at the NATO summit in Ankara earlier this week – the tirade about saying I’m getting rid of the MoU, it no longer stands, and the ceasefire is over, and I’m calling the Iranian leadership every name I can think of,” he said.

“And yet here you have, on the other hand, the United States almost pleading for Iran to sign a document saying that the strait is open. So, it seems to me, from Tehran’s perspective, they see weakness on the side of the United States and an absence of policy.”

Ullman said the conflict also seems stuck for the moment between “hot and cold” states, comparing it to the Korean War from 1951 to 1953.

“For two years and seven days the negotiation was going on while the fighting was continuing. And so I think you have a combination of hot and cold here, where I don’t know how long the fighting is going to go on, limited as it is,” he said.

“My guess is that both sides will try and reach some kind of an agreement, initially on the Strait, which is critical to Trump. He sees oil and gasoline prices going up, he sees the world economy being hurt, and he knows that the [midterm] elections are four months off in the United States. So, there’s great pressure here,” he added.

“And as far as Iran is concerned, the economic conditions are not getting any better. And so it seems to me that Iran needs to have some kind of relaxation and have an ability to export oil and to relieve some of the sanctions. And for that reason I think we see both a hot and cold war persisting simultaneously, and negotiations could drag on.”

Qatari mediators in Tehran as Iran warns it is ready for ‘full-scale war’

Qatari negotiators are in Tehran to meet Iranian officials to de-escalate the tension and to create conditions for broader talks between Iran and the United States.

Iranian officials still seem to be skeptical about the Americans’ intentions pertaining to the implementation of the Pakistani-brokered memorandum of understanding, especially after the latest spate of attacks; the US air strikes that targeted several civilian and military infrastructure across five Iranian provinces and killed and injured dozens of Iranians, and also, especially after the latest statement by US President Donald Trump, unilaterally ending the memorandum of understanding.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of the Iranian parliament and chief negotiator just stated that during the recent conflict, Iran will never surrender. In fact, Iran is, according to him, ready for a full-scale war.

Iranian officials were repeatedly reiterating that Iran cannot give in under coercive diplomacy. In fact, they say that in order for them to continue with the talks with the United States, the US has to implement the articles of the MoU, especially article number one, pertaining to the ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, and article number five pertaining to Iran’s sovereign right in managing the Strait of Hormuz, and Article number 10 pertaining to Iran’s right to export its oil.

Traffic through Hormuz down for third night in a row, ship tracking firm says

Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was down for the third night in a row between July 9 and 10, according to the latest data from ship tracking firm Windward.

It says only six vessels crossed the waterway within a 12-hour window, compared with the 18 to 22 that normally crossed only a few days ago.

At the same time, Windward says “dark transits”, where vessels turn their transponders off to hide their locations, are climbing and now account for nearly 40 percent of all traffic, the highest in six days.

Iran’s chief negotiator says country ‘ready for full-scale defense’

Iran’s lead negotiator and parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, says Tehran will never surrender to the US and is ever ready to defend itself if Washington backs out of the MoU.

“We have never stopped preparing to defend our country, and [if] at any moment the Americans betray the understanding, we are ready for full-scale defense,” he said.

“Ending the war is a priority for the countries of the world, but everyone should know that this conflict will never end with Iran’s surrender,” he added.

The statement followed a social media post from US President Donald Trump claiming Tehran and Washington had agreed to continue talks, but that the ceasefire was “over”.

US touts military options to block Iran’s nuclear access as talks continue

Senior US officials say conversations between the United States and Iran have been productive.

The US insists that in order for there to be a deal with Iran, there must be a number of conditions that are met; the first is that Iran must agree to nuclear limits and that nuclear material must be delivered.

Now, the United States says further that there are military options in place currently to ensure that the nuclear sites in Iran remain inaccessible.

As we know, there has been an escalation this week because of what the United States says was Iran shooting at commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Iranians are reportedly telling the United States this was due to an errant part of their system, and what we know is that the United States has now issued an ultimatum to Iran as a result, saying that Iran must put out a public statement that it will no longer shoot at vessels and that all channels are open for shipping.

The US officials are saying that should Iran choose not to do that, it will not be a good outcome for Iran.

Iran’s Araghchi warns ‘there can only be mutual compliance’ after US sanctions

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi criticized the United States over its failure to uphold the interim agreement, warning that the administration’s actions demonstrate a clear breach of established commitments.

“Iran has so far kept its word, unlike the so-called US Treasury Secretary who is violating Para 9 of the MoU,” he wrote on X.

“The violation follows other violations and missteps by the United States,” Araghchi said.

Araghchi concluded his post with a “reality check”, warning Washington that “there can only be mutual compliance” moving forward.

Trump says US ready to ‘completely decimate and destroy’ Iran in case of assassination attempt

US President Donald Trump has threatened to launch “thousands” of missiles at Iran should it try to assassinate him, in a Truth Social post.

“1000 Missiles are Locked and Loaded and aimed at the Islamic Republic of Iran, with thousands of more to immediately follow, should the Iranian Government act on its threat, pronounced in many corners of the Globe, to assassinate, or attempt to assassinate, the sitting President of the United States of America, in this case, ME!” he said.

“Orders have already been given, and the U.S. Military is ready, willing, and able, for a one year period of time, subject to extension, to completely decimate and destroy all areas of Iran.”

IEA expects first global oil demand drop since 2020 amid US-Iran war

The International Energy Agency says global oil demand is projected to drop this year for the first time since the 2020 pandemic, largely due to the US-Iran war, according to a report by The Associated Press news agency.

The anticipated 2026 decline of roughly one million barrels per day (bpd) stems from high prices and shipping disruptions in the Gulf. The conflict has left many crude oil tankers stranded for over three months, unable to safely navigate the Strait of Hormuz – a vital global energy choke point.

In May, according to the AP report, global consumption fell by 5.3 million bpd compared with last year, averaging 97.9 million barrels. Asia bore the brunt of the slump due to its heavy reliance on oil from the Middle East, with China recording the world’s sharpest decline at 9 percent (1.5 million bpd).

The primary exception was the US, where petrol usage actually rose during the second quarter of 2026, despite pump prices soaring roughly 50 percent above pre-war levels in May.

Iranian official highlights military surveillance of enemy movements

The spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Esmaeil Baghaei, highlights the continuous surveillance of enemy movements by the nation’s armed forces.

In a post on X, he said: “The valiant defenders of the noble homeland in the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, on the coasts, islands, borders and other sensitive points of the country, with vigilant and watchful eyes, keep the enemy’s movements under surveillance.”

He added that these forces “safeguard the security and tranquility of dear Iran” through their actions.

Iran says ‘errant’ group of hardliners fired on ships to undermine negotiations

Iran has said that an “errant” group of hardliners had tried to undermine negotiations by firing on commercial ships earlier this week, senior US officials told CBS News.

One official told the US TV network: “They [the Iranians] came back to the table and said, ‘We screwed up. We made a mistake. Let’s keep talking.'”

Iranian official says $300m in damage done to research infrastructure

Hossein Afshin, the Iranian president’s deputy for science, technology and knowledge-based economy, says the country’s research infrastructure has suffered about $300m in damage in the war.

“We were working on emerging technologies in the country that had no military application, and the enemy had targeted Iran’s scientific and technological authority, which will be rebuilt with strength,” he said, IRNA reports.

“We are trying to be a powerhouse of science and technology in today’s world, because any country that invests in this field will be successful.”

Pakistan’s PM urges Iran, US to uphold MoU amid rising tensions

Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif has shared his “deep concern” with Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian over the recent escalation in tensions.

In a phone call with Pezeshian, Sharif stressed “the urgent need to restore regional peace and stability” and “the importance of upholding the commitments undertaken under the MoU which the US and Iran signed last month”.

Pakistan has been the main facilitator of talks between Washington and Tehran.

Iranian FM Araghchi arrives in Oman for talks

Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi has arrived in the Omani capital Muscat for talks, the semi-official Tasnim news agency has reported.

Explosion heard in eastern Tehran was from disposal operation

A loud explosion reported in eastern Tehran was the result of authorities conducting a controlled ammunition disposal, according to Iranian state media.

An official told Fars news agency that the operation posed no danger to residents, shortly after people in Pakdasht and Qiyamdasht districts reported a loud blast on Saturday morning.

Iran’s FM in Oman for talks on managing traffic through strait

Iranian FM Araghchi is in Oman, with the visit part of ongoing consultations between Tehran and Muscat pertaining to the arrangements for passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Consultations between the two countries have been going on for the past two months.

Iranian officials have been reiterating that they have a sovereign right in managing the Strait of Hormuz in order to keep it safe and secure.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman has stated that the US has a history of violating or breaking agreements. Esmaeil Baghaei said that Iran did not request negotiations at this stage, but it accepts mediators’ visits to Tehran.

Baghaei is also accusing the US of violating the MoU by carrying out air strikes and also by revoking the exemption on Iranian oil exports.

Uncertainty about whether peace talks resume

Although Trump has said that the MoU with Iran is “over”, a US official has said that despite two days of launching attacks this week, Washington remains committed to negotiations with Tehran.

Neither side has officially called off the negotiations, and the US official said that technical talks for a lasting peace deal will carry on.

So, it is unclear whether talks will continue and, if they do, when will that happen.

The US is building a new pressure architecture against Iran

Washington is linking domestic instability, regional fronts, and Western coalition-building in a strategy that is still destined to fail.

Was Trump’s presence at the NATO summit in Turkiye, amid escalating anti-Iranian rhetoric and orders to attack Iran, simply participation in a diplomatic meeting on European security?

This question is of paramount importance because recent developments cannot be understood at the surface level alone.

At a deeper level, Trump’s presence signals a recalibration of the US’s strategic calculations regarding Iran and the “axis of resistance”. This recalibration is based on the premise that direct military, political and economic pressure, despite imposing costs, has failed to produce the desired shift in Iran’s behavior, power configuration or strategic orientation.

This is a testing period, but not the end of negotiations

The US and Iran are trying to increase the pressure and test where each other’s boundaries are, an analyst says.

“Both countries trying to say, here’s what’s really important to me, and here’s why we need a deal, and that’s why you see the threats ramping up,” Paul Musgrave, an associate professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, said.

He added that the concrete steps being taken, like waiving sanctions suspensions but not going back to interdicting Iranian shipping, shows there’s still room to negotiate.

“I think that this is a testing period, but this is not the end of negotiations by any means.”

In talks on the Strait of Hormuz, US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff have reportedly urged Iran “to think bigger and to look at the lifting of sanctions, to look at the resumption of trade, to look at that $300bn fund that would allow for reconnecting Iran to the global economy”, Musgrave explained.

This would allow “both sides to walk away claiming a victory, which is what everybody wants”.

Iran reopens railway bridge damaged in US strike

Iranian authorities have said the bridge in Aqqala County, in Golestan province, damaged in an earlier US strike, has reopened for operations, reported Iran’s Radio and Television News Agency.

Ali-Asghar Tahmasbi, the governor of Golestan, said the reopening of the damaged bridge less than 24 hours after the attack “is the province’s practical response to the threats and actions of the enemies”.

Earlier, Iranian state media reported that a railway bridge near Aqqala was hit early on Wednesday, damaging the Gorgan-Incheh Borun railway line, a part of Iran’s northern rail connectivity with Turkmenistan and wider Central Asian networks.

Iran’s supreme leader pledges revenge of father’s ‘innocent blood’

In his first message since the funeral of his father, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has pledged to “avenge [his] innocent blood”, adding that “revenge is the will of our nation.”

Khamenei expressed his gratitude to millions who turned up with an “enemy-breaking and historic presence” for the funeral of his father, who was assassinated in the US-Israeli attacks on the first day of the war in late February.

US-Iran escalation should be viewed in context of MoU implementation

From day one, the “very first paragraph of the memorandum of understanding was not being implemented correctly”, says University of Iran Professor Hakimeh Saghaye-Biria.

“Lebanon was still under attack. Israeli forces did not agree to move out of south Lebanon and cease firing on the Lebanese territories,” she said.

The US was also still using language that meant that the threat of using force was still on the table, “which was actually in violation of the first paragraph of the memorandum of understanding”.

The second paragraph, relating to sovereignty of both sides being respected, is also important, she noted.

“Sovereignty is not just about land. It’s about land, sea and air.

“Iran is looking at whether the US is actually ready to accept Iran’s sovereignty on its territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz, or is trying to find a way of basically circumventing that.

“We have to see this in the bigger picture, in the bigger context of whether the MoU was even implemented in the first place.”

Iran’s UN envoy warns Tehran ‘will no longer be bound’ by the MoU if US violations continue

Iran’s ambassador to the UN, Amir Saeid Iravani, says Tehran will stop honoring its MoU with the US if the latter’s attacks continue, accusing Washington of a “flagrant violation” of the UN Charter over attacks on Iranian islands and southern cities on July 7 and 8.

“Should the United States continue to violate its obligations under the MoU, Iran will no longer be bound to fulfill its obligations under the MoU,” he told reporters outside the UN Security Council, adding that Tehran remains committed “provided that the United States fully and faithfully complies with its own obligations”.

Iran is seeking to break the cycle of coercive diplomacy

“The US is trying to continue with its approach to diplomacy with Iran, which has been coercive diplomacy over the years,” University of Iran professor Hakimeh Saghaye-Biria said.

It is offering Iran a carrot “in the form of being part of the international community in terms of economic relations”, she explained.

Iran is attempting to break that cycle of coercive diplomacy by not “accepting the idea that it is being offered a carrot and that sticks are still being used to get it to do what the United States wants”.

Saghaye-Biria noted that the historical context of the last 25 years should not be forgotten.

“Iran has as much to be distrustful of the international community, the United States, as the United States wants to say that Iran is not trustworthy,” she said.

US-Iran conflict ‘escalation looks inevitable’

Mostafa Khoshcheshm, a professor at the University of Applied Sciences and Technology in Tehran, said that millions of Iranians have been “demanding revenge”, even before the funeral procession of the late Ali Khamenei.

“Every night that Iranian people appeared in the streets, this is actually a response to the growing public demand,” he said, referring to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s statement pledging to avenge the killing of his father.

“I don’t believe there is anyone in the world who would say that the Americans are justified in killing the Iranian leader and top generals, and Iranians should sit idly,” Khoshcheshm said. “If Americans do not pay the price, they will go on and kill the new supreme leader as they have been warning.”

The professor added that “an escalation seems inevitable because Americans have never been loyal to any kind of deal with Iran.”

‘Iranians will not tolerate’ giving up Hormuz control

Mostafa Khoshcheshm, a professor at the University of Applied Sciences and Technology in Tehran, said that “Iran earns nothing” from participating in the talks any more and “stands to lose a lot”.

Khoshcheshm noted that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the midst of the war shot up oil prices and came to be Tehran’s biggest weapon in the conflict.

“That mounted pressure on Trump at home, and he failed repeatedly to reopen this strait through military means.

“Iran, a vast country, has taken measures to compensate by other means, including activating its land borders.”

The analyst argued that the waterway has been “under Iranian control for centuries, ever since this country was created”.

“This shouldn’t be the other way around after the war, and Iranians will not tolerate that. Iran is not going to take part in the talks unless the US backs down [from the Strait of Hormuz].”

Iran’s call for revenge over Khamenei’s death raises doubts for any new talks

Iran is projecting defiance through the messaging by the supreme leader who has called for revenge. He has also mentioned that no matter who is in office, revenge is inevitable for the death of the late Khamenei and those who were killed by the US and Israeli military campaign.

The timing is particularly significant because we’re getting conflicting signals. The Americans are saying that there is an imminent round of talks but Iranian media is denying that.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei denied reports indicating that Iran had requested to resume negotiations.

Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains the focus of this conflict and the focus of negotiations. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is on a visit to Oman to arrange safe passage through the strait.

Vague MoU provisions fuelled competing interpretations on Hormuz: Former British ambassador

Nicholas Hopton, a former UK ambassador to Qatar and Iran, has said vague provisions within the US-Iran MoU have given room for competing interpretations, contributing to the latest round of tit-for-tat strikes

“Many such documents which bring wars to an end are vague and open to misinterpretation or interpretation in different ways – and certainly that is the case with the 14-point memorandum of understanding,” Hopton said.

He said the US and Iran are especially at odds over the implications of Article 5 of the MoU, which concerns safe passage of the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran insisting that it still retains some control over the strait and that ships need to coordinate with it to pass.

“Both sides obviously differ on that – that’s why we’ve had the tit-for-tat strikes this week,” said Hopton. “That is why we’ve had the spike in tensions, but we’re not back to full-scale war, which is the good news.”

Hopton added that the US-Iran MoU should still be considered a major accomplishment that reduced gaps between the two sides.

Oman well-positioned to mediate path out of ‘diplomatic minefield’: Former British ambassador

Nicholas Hopton hopes that officials in Oman, where Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is visiting today, can help broker a resolution to the US and Iran’s dispute over the status of the Strait of Hormuz,

“The Omanis, who are very practiced at dealing with the Iranians, and of course have good relations with the West as well, will be in a very good position to try and find a way through this diplomatic minefield,” Hopton said. “In particular, because, of course, Oman also borders the Strait of Hormuz.”

He said one way forward could be “some sort of formula… that pays at least lip service to the fact that things have changed since the 28th of February and that Iran does in fact have de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz at the moment”.

While Iran certainly has the ability to disrupt passage in the strait, Hopton added, Iran “cannot be allowed to charge a toll or defy international law of the sea”.”

Saudi foreign minister holds phone call with Pakistani counterpart over Iran-US war

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan has received a phone call from Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar, in which they discussed regional developments.

According to a statement by the Saudi foreign minister, the two leaders underscored the importance of supporting mediation efforts between the US and Iran and facilitating talks to reach a comprehensive solution that promotes regional stability.

US sees diplomatic talks in Oman as ‘pivotal’

Washington views today’s meetings in Oman between Iranian and Omani officials as pivotal for future diplomacy, according to unnamed US officials cited by Radio Free Europe.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is in Muscat to help find a diplomatic solution to the ongoing crisis.

Iran looking to deter US from carrying out targeted assassinations

Iran has pledged revenge to inflict a cost on the US and prevent future attacks against its leadership, Mostafa Khoshcheshm, professor at the University of Applied Science and Technology in Tehran, has said.

“[Iranians] believe that if there is no vengeance, then the Israelis and the Americans will continue killing Iranian top leaders,” Khoshcheshm said.

In 2020, a US drone strike killed Iran’s top general Qassem Soleimani. Since then, a string of top Iranian leaders, including Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran’s Defense Council and a close adviser to the late Supreme Leader Khamenei, have been killed.

“So this cycle should stop, and it will not stop until Iran inflicts heavy costs on the United States and Israel as a deterrent,” the professor said.

Iran tripled drone production during war, says minister

Iran’s investment in technology allowed it to triple drone production capacity during the war, according to the acting defense minister.

“The recent war showed that Iranian elites and investment in modern technologies are the most important components of the country’s defense power,” Majid Ibn al-Reza was quoted by Iran’s Tasnim news agency.

“At the height of the war, not only did defense production not stop, but the drone production capacity increased threefold.”

Qatar, Jordan discuss regional tensions, call for de-escalation

Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani has held a phone call with Jordan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi to discuss the current escalation between the US and Iran.

In a statement, the Qatari Foreign Ministry said both sides emphasized the importance of diplomacy and de-escalation. Qatar called for the implementation of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding and the safeguarding of freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian and Omani ministers meet in Muscat, discuss Hormuz ‘safe passage’

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, has met his Omani counterpart, Badr al-Busaidi, in the capital Muscat, according to a post on Araghchi’s official Telegram page.

They discussed bilateral relations and regional developments, especially regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The post added that the ministers “exchanged views on appropriate mechanisms for the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz,” in accordance with the US-Iran MoU.

US involved in planned Iraq-Syria pipeline deal to circumvent Strait of Hormuz

The US has been working with Iraq and Syria on a plan to revamp an old pipeline running from Iraq’s northern city of Kirkuk to Syria’s Baniyas on the Mediterranean coast, which would allow Iraq to export oil without using the Strait of Hormuz, reports Middle East Eye.

The London-based news outlet cites Iraqi and other regional officials as saying an agreement to restore the 500-mile (800km) pipeline, which has been closed for decades and is badly damaged, is expected to be announced during a meeting between Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi and Trump in the White House next week.

One senior official told Middle East Eye that the pipeline will probably have to be completely replaced, which would take two to three years. The official said a group of US companies have already been recruited for the project.

Hormuz shipping in focus as Iran-US rhetoric heats up

Iran and the United States have offered clashing narratives over the fate of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz as they continue to trade threats, even as they maintain contact through mediators.

Iranian state media on Saturday released the latest statement attributed to Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen or heard from since being selected as the new supreme leader by a clerical body in March.

Ali Vaez, the Crisis Group’s Iran Project director, said revenge rhetoric is for domestic consumption while diplomacy is aimed at preventing another punishing round of war.

“Trump’s declaration that the ceasefire is over raises the costs of talks, but not necessarily their utility. Both sides appear to recognize that the alternative is an escalation neither can afford or reliably control,” he said.

Iran ‘firm’ in view that it should regulate Hormuz traffic

The recent statement by Iran’s foreign ministry does not give that many details [about the meeting in Muscat between Araghchi and Oman’s al-Busaidi].

At the end, the statement said the two officials “exchanged views on appropriate mechanisms for the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz”.

Iran has been insisting on this “mechanism” for Hormuz between Iran and Oman and now we know they have been focusing on that.

Iran is quite firm in its view that Article 5 of the US-Iran MoU fully authorizes Iran to be the sole actor regulating maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian officials say that the Strait of Hormuz is within Iran’s and Oman’s territorial waters, so no third party can be involved. Of course, this is something that regional countries and the US are fundamentally against.

Oman and Iran agree to continue technical and political talks over navigation of Hormuz

Oman and Iran have agreed to continue technical and political talks to reach agreement on the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz under international law, Oman’s state news agency has said on X.

The statement said the two sides “held talks in Muscat regarding navigation in the Strait of Hormuz to ensure its safety and freedom in light of the facts and implications arising from recent developments”.

Threat of Khamenei revenge adds personal element to already complicated equation

The Americans yesterday imposed new sanctions on Iran, but according to article 10 of the memorandum of understanding there were supposed to be no new sanctions on Iran during the 60-day period of the negotiations. So Iran is now saying that well, if the US doesn’t comply with the memorandum of understanding, Iran is not going to engage in talks.

Meanwhile, Iran’s supreme leader is promising revenge for the assassination of his father. The situation is extremely complicated and definitely this kind of statement is complicating matters further as it is adding a personal element into this already complicated equation.

Just to understand, the sentiment in Iran during the week-long funeral procession of the late supreme leader, the main theme was revenge. Revenge and anger are prevailing. Iranians are saying, well, if you are killing our leaders, then we also have the right to kill your leaders.

Qatari and Emirati ministers discuss efforts to ‘reduce escalation’

Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, has spoken by phone with the UAE’s Foreign Minister, Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, about the latest regional developments, according to a statement from Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

They discussed ongoing diplomatic efforts to “reduce escalation and promote security and stability in the region.”

Sheikh Mohammed stressed the need for all parties to stay engaged in dialogue and diplomacy, as well as the implementation of the US-Iran MoU, the statement added.

He also reiterated Doha’s “full support for all endeavors aimed at defusing tensions and reaching a comprehensive agreement that achieves lasting peace in the region”.

Oman reportedly proposed two separate routes through Strait of Hormuz

Sources have told us that in the meeting between al-Busaidi and Araghchi (the Omani and Iranian foreign ministers), the Omanis have repeated the same approach as in previous talks, suggesting to have two separately controlled routes in the Strait of Hormuz, one through Iranian territorial waters and one through Omani waters.

In previous talks, the Iranians did not accept that offer but insisted on having one single management, including both Omanis and Iranians.

In Tehran, the concern regarding that is, if there are two separate managements, eventually all the ships would go through Omani waters, bypassing Iran and leaving the country without any leverage when it comes to negotiations.

There have been different formulas at the table today, but unclear whether the sides have agreed on any points.

‘All Iran has to do is mess things up’: Former Pentagon official

David Des Roches says the United States still has options beyond expanding its military strikes on Iran, but none offer an easy solution to Tehran’s strategy in the Strait of Hormuz.

“Iran’s strategy here is not really a military one,” the former Pentagon director of Arabian Peninsula affairs said. “It’s based on promoting uncertainty among commercial markets, in this instance, the maritime insurance market.”

He said Iran can achieve its objectives simply by keeping insurers and shipping companies nervous, while Washington faces the far more difficult task of guaranteeing the safe passage of commercial vessels.

“All Iran has to do is mess things up,” Des Roches said. “The United States, to achieve its goals, has to completely control the Gulf.”

He described that imbalance as a “disproportionate burden”, noting that Iran can create a strategic effect using a small boat, drone or missile, while US forces must operate across vast distances and commit significant resources.

Des Roches also warned that demand for Patriot missile interceptors is placing pressure on US and allied stockpiles, with systems required in the Gulf, Ukraine and Europe.

He said increased production and licensed manufacturing could eventually ease the strain, but added that the shortage remains “a shared problem” for Washington and its partners.

‘They really haven’t changed’: Huckabee on Iran’s position towards US

US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee has confirmed that Israel warned Washington about what it described as a specific Iranian plot to assassinate President Donald Trump.

Speaking to Fox News, Huckabee said he had seen no significant evidence of a “peaceful part” within the Iranian government.

“What the Iranians are saying and doing is nothing that they haven’t been doing for 47 years,” he said. “This is a longstanding ‘death to America’ chant they’ve had. They really haven’t changed.”

".. Israel warned Washington .."

Israel did not warn Washington. Huckabee's claim is based on Netanyahu's claim from June 16, 2025, when he claimed in an interview with Fox News, and without any evidence, that Iran wanted to kill Trump twice. The (video) interview is in our possession.

IRGC Navy says Strait of Hormuz temporarily closed until further notice

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy says it has temporarily closed the Strait of Hormuz “until further notice”, according to IRIB, Iran’s state broadcaster.

In a statement reported by Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, the IRGC Navy said foreign interference and attempts to set what it called an “illegal route” for shipping through the strait would be met with a firm response.

It said several vessels had ignored warnings to correct their course and move within the approved route. One vessel, which it said had turned off its systems and endangered maritime security, was stopped after warning shots were fired.

The IRGC Navy said no vessels would be allowed to pass through the strait until US interference in the area ends.

It also warned that any new attack or violation would be met with a forceful response, including strikes on what it called new enemy bases in the region.

Strait of Hormuz is now Iran’s main negotiating card, analyst says

Nicholas Hopton, former UK ambassador to Qatar and Iran and a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, says rising tensions between Washington and Tehran stem largely from competing interpretations of the post-war memorandum of understanding, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz, which he argues has become Iran’s strongest source of leverage in negotiations, overshadowing the nuclear issue for now.

Iran sends twofold message on Hormuz: ‘Diplomacy and escalation both possible’

The IRGC is saying the Strait of Hormuz is now closed until further notice, and that no vessels will be allowed to pass through until what it describes as US intervention in the region comes to an end.

This comes as the situation around the strait remains extremely fragile. In recent days, there were repeated reports of the waterway being reopened, partially reopened, and then closed again.

What Tehran is now talking about is a new arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz — one where it says control over shipping routes stays under Iranian authority, in coordination with Oman, but not under terms set by foreign powers.

At the same time, Iran is sending two messages. On the diplomatic side, officials say talks and mediation are still under way, including efforts by Qatar and other countries, to try to resolve the crisis.

But on the military side, they are also warning that escalation could still be on the horizon. Iranian officials have repeatedly said their “fingers are on the trigger” and promised what they call a crushing response to any further attack or violation.

So this is not only about Hormuz. It is also about US intervention, Iran’s oil exports, sanctions, and whether diplomacy can still stop another round of confrontation.

For now, Tehran appears to be saying it is open to diplomacy, but ready for escalation.

Iranian media gives more details on ‘warning shots’ fired at vessel in Hormuz

The navy of the IRGC said that it fired warning shots at a vessel that had turned off its transponder in the Strait of Hormuz, attempting to cross via what it termed an “illegal route”.

Semi-official Fars news agency now reports that the ship was targeted with a cruise missile, and that the vessel had ignored warnings to turn back from Iranian authorities.

Iran’s supreme leader vows to avenge father’s killing

Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a statement promising revenge against ‘criminals whose names are known’.⁣
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Iranian analyst Mostafa Khoshcheshm says the message is a response to public demand.